Covid-19 R Factor: Modi govt cautions about rise in R-Factor in these states; why you need to worry

R Factor Covid in India: The pandemic is nowhere close to being over. The ‘delta variant’ of SARS-CoV-3 that caused the second wave is still ranging in the country and eight states are witnessing a rise in R-factor, the government said today, calling it a ‘significant problem.’ More than eighteen districts showed an increasing trend in cases in the last four weeks.

According to NITI Aayog member (VK Paul), who heads the government’s Covid task force, 44 districts have reported a high case positivity. Although the number of districts with high R-factor has decreased, new states are showing districts with high positivity, Paul said.

The states where the R-factor is more than one are Himachal Pradesh, Jammu, and Kashmir, Lakshadweep, Tamil Nadu, Mizoram, Karnataka, Puducherry, and Kerala. Only Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra show a declining trend and in states like Bengal, Nagaland, Haryana, Goa, Delhi, and Jharkhand the R-factor is at 1.

What is R-factor

R-factor is the reproductive rate of a virus that is calculated using determinants like the rate of infection to figure out exactly how fast the virus is spreading. The infectious period depends on the virus — this can be a few weeks, months, or even decades.

If R-factor is above one, it means that one COVID-positive person is infecting more than one person. When the R-factor it is 2, it indicated that one COVID-infected person is on average infecting two more. According to Lav Agarwal, Joint Secretary of the Union Health Ministry, whenever R number is above one, it means that the case trajectory is increasing and it needs to be controlled.

How much is the R-factor at as a national level

The rate is now 0.88 as opposed to 0.78 in June said Chennai’s Indian Institute of Mathematical Sciences in its latest study. The closer the rate gets to 1, we should be more worried.

When the second wave of the Covid-19 infection was at its peak, the overall R-value in the country was estimated to be 1.37 between March 9 to April 21. It declined to 1.18 between April 24 and May 1 and then to 1.1 between April 29 and May 7, according to the analysis.

Kerala has the highest number of active cases and continues to have an R-value of more than 1. The Union Minister has deputed a six-member team to Kerala for effective Covid-19 management as the state reports a spike in daily cases.