WTC: India, Australia favourites for final; South Africa on fringes

India inched ahead and strengthened their chances to qualify for the World Test Championship Final, clean sweeping Bangladesh 2-0 in an away Test series on Sunday.

India had soared to the third position after winning the first Test in Chattogram, but South Africa’s defeat to Australia inside two days helped them to move to the second spot.

They have now further consolidated their spot on the points table after winning a thriller in Dhaka as Bangladesh came too close to disturbing their chances and creating history with a first Test win over their neighbours.

India’s percentage points improved from 55.77 to 58.93. Australia remain at the top of the table with 76.92 points, whereas South Africa are third on the table with 54.55 percentage points. Sri Lanka are under the nose of South Africa with 53.33 percentage points.

India will next play Australia in a four-match series at home in 2023.

World Test Championship points table after Ind vs Ban. ICC-cricket.com

Have Australia qualified for the WTC Final?

The Aussies are best placed to make it to the final but have not yet qualified mathematically. If they manage to clean sweep the Proteas, they will be through to the finals, but a loss shall make them vulnerable, and will need at least five in the India series to qualify.

However, if Australia lose the remaining two games against South Africa, which is highly unlikely, they will need at least a win and a draw against India.

What does India need to qualify for the WTC Final?

India’s qualification largely depends on how South Africa perform in the remaining four Tests of the cycle. If the Proteas are whitewashed against Australia, India will need a series win over Australia irrespective of the margin.

To the contrary, if South Africa win one of the two remaining games against Australia, and clean sweep West Indies (highly probable) 2-0, India will need a 3-1 or 2-0 margin against Australia to qualify. India will however have a massive advantage playing at home.

How does South Africa qualify?

South Africa still look good on the points table but are on a thin line considering the future series left to be played out. To start with, they will have to avoid a series defeat in Australia. Then try to clean sweep West Indies which shall not be a heavy task.

However, if they are able to do so, India vs Australia will be a virtual qualifier as only one of the two sides will be able to overtake them on the points table.

Do any of the other six teams stand a chance?

Pakistan were knocked out after losing 0-3 to England at home. England have ruled the Test arena for a while with their Bazball approach but their Ashes humiliation will hurt them the entire cycle. None of New Zealand, Bangladesh, or West Indies can qualify unless India and South Africa lose all their remaining games, which is unlikely.

Sri Lanka is the only side to have a practical chance of qualifying. They will first have to defeat New Zealand 2-0. They will then have to expect Australia to do them a favour and beat South Africa and India by a significant margin.

The points table might take a turn and the cart might fall down if one or more of the teams are penalised for penalty overs and their points are deducted. This can have a serious impact as we saw England losing 10 points in one match during the Ashes.

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