Vaccine hesitancy is taking a toll in Europe’s east

Even as Omicron cases rocket in west European countries including the UK and Denmark, in the continent’s centre and east the Delta wave is still doing serious damage. In statistics for daily per capita deaths with Covid, former communist-bloc countries currently dominate the top 20 places, with Hungary number one. In absolute numbers Poland — which on Wednesday reported 669 Covid deaths, its highest daily total since April — is third after the US and Russia. With unvaccinated people making up most of Poland’s deaths, a common thread is lower vaccine rates than countries further west — leaving the region potentially even more vulnerable to the new variant.

There are caveats here. There may be less undercounting of Covid deaths by central and east European nations than by some developing countries. Many countries in the region have ageing populations, but escaped with fewer fatalities in earlier waves. And Omicron’s spread may rapidly start to reorder tables of mortality rates.

Yet vaccination rates notably lag across the region. They range from just 22 per cent of the population with two doses in Bosnia and Herzegovina (on November figures) and 26.7 per cent in Bulgaria to almost 65 per cent in Lithuania and Latvia. But all are below the 68.2 per cent EU average.

Many have less well-funded health systems and poorer infrastructure than countries further west. But unlike in lower-income countries elsewhere, the problem is less one of supply than of take-up. Collapsed socialist systems bequeathed deep distrust in government and a lack of respect for rules and the authorities — providing fertile ground for vaccine scepticism. Germany is a microcosm, with full vaccination rates much lower in states in the formerly socialist east such as Saxony (59.1 per cent) than in western states such as Bremen (81.5 per cent).

Governments have often been reluctant to take aggressive steps to combat vaccine hesitancy or powerful anti-vaccine lobbies, apparently fearing protests. They have been reluctant, too, to compensate for low jab take-up with restrictions such as Covid passes. Rising deaths and dwindling hospital beds are starting to force a rethink. Poland on Wednesday closed nightclubs except for some New Year parties and cut a limit on unvaccinated people in restaurants, hotels and theatres to 30 per cent of capacity, though the impact may be limited.

In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban has relied almost exclusively on inoculations to fight the pandemic since shots became available, buying Russian and Chinese vaccines early this year to get ahead of EU-wide efforts — though efficacy, especially of the Chinese vaccine, proved questionable. But vaccinations plateaued and Hungary is having a hard time getting above 6.2m people fully vaccinated out of its 9.8m population. While masks are mandatory in enclosed public places, Orban is resisting tougher restrictions with elections looming next April.

Backlash concerns may make CEE countries especially resistant to making jabs compulsory, though Austria is doing so and Germany may follow. But the EU is reportedly preparing awareness campaigns to tackle the vaccination gap, with a summit this week set to stress the priority of fighting disinformation. France and Italy, meanwhile, have shown how strict Covid passes can nudge waverers to be jabbed.

Austria has demonstrated in recent weeks that strict lockdown can still quickly reverse soaring Delta case and death rates. If more of Europe’s vaccine laggards are to avoid similar new shutdowns, they may have little choice but to embrace a combination of vaccine education and firm persuasion.