Ukraine crisis: Tensions to continue despite signs of de-escalation, says expert

The world is witnessing an unprecedented crisis. Russia has on Wednesday announced the end of Crimea military drills, and that its military troops are troops leaving Units of the southern military district. Quoting Russian Defence Ministry’s statement, reports indicate that after completing their participation in tactical drill, the troops are moving back to their permanent deployment points.

What does this mean?

According to Prof Rajan Kumar, School of International Studies, JNU, “Amid propaganda, rhetoric and contradictory statements, processing reliable information becomes a real challenge. From the western perspective, a Russian invasion is imminent, and Moscow is only waiting for the opportune moment. It is prepared to carry out a large-scale military operation to destabilise Ukraine, and possibly integrate the Donbass region or declare its independence.”

“Moscow has been consistent in denying such allegations as ‘baseless western propaganda’. Yet, it has kept its army mobilised and ominously close to Ukrainian borders. From Moscow’s standpoint, the US is creating the fear of ‘Russian invasion’ to legitimise the operations of NATO and extend its influence over Ukraine. Moscow has repeatedly asked NATO to tone down its rhetoric and come forward to the negotiating table to discuss the larger issue of European security,” Prof Rajan opines.

Why did Russia deploy its military at Ukrainian borders?

Sharing his views with Financial Express Online, Prof Rajan says, “Russia’s military build-up at Ukrainian borders was meant to drive home two particular messages to the West, and one to Kiev: Russia will not accept the inclusion of Ukraine in NATO, and second Russia must be a part of the larger European security architecture to be decided by the OSCE. Russia put forward many other security demands before the West earlier, but only these two were fundamental to its concerns. Rest of them were negotiable and even Moscow was aware of their rejection by the West.”

What was the message Russia wanted to send to Ukraine?

A message that Moscow wanted to send across to Kiev was that the latter must accept the Minsk II agreement which guaranteed the federal-autonomous status of the Donbass region.

“Ukraine is not keen on implementing the Minsk agreement. It would like to have a unitary status in the entire country. In another development, the Russian Duma has asked President Putin to recognise the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. These are serious developments and Ukraine must tread carefully,” he opines.

In his view, if the West and Ukraine do not ensure the autonomy of Donbass regions, there is a real possibility that Russia may declare their independence. 

“It would be similar to what Russia did to Georgia in 2008. It recognised Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states,” Prof Rajan observes.

Much, however, will depend on negotiations between Kiev and Moscow, and Kiev and Berlin. If Ukraine can convince Moscow that it is not keen on NATO membership at least for some years, Russia would be equally keen to de-escalate the situation.

According to him, “Berlin can play a pivotal role in convincing Moscow to de-escalate the crisis given its influence over Russia. No other country in Europe exercises as much influence over Russia as Germany does given its historic, cultural and economic ties. Berlin can also assuage Ukrainian leadership by offering financial assistance and informal security guarantees.

Why is Ukraine unhappy with Germany?

It is unhappy for two reasons: its opposition to Ukraine’s membership to NATO, and the Nord Stream-II pipeline which will chip away some revenue of Ukraine. “But Ukraine is aware of the role that Germany plays in continental economy and security. Therefore, it would be amenable to suggestions, offers and pressures from Berlin,” he adds.