Subansiri Hydropower Project: Narrow electoral, personal gains should not manipulate strategic use of blue resource

Lower Subansiri HEP dam site. Image courtesy JN Khataniar

Protests against the 2000-MW Lower Subansiri Hydropower Project in the Assam-Arunachal Pradesh border erupted once again after a lull of over a year. The efficient cause of the protest by the Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti, the All Assam Student’s Union and the Asom Jatiyatabadi Yuba Chatra Parishad this time around was the collapsing of the diversion tunnel and the power house guard wall in the dam that is still undergoing construction.

Although, incessant rains in Arunachal Pradesh’s Subansiri river resulting in an enormity of flow in the Subansiri river caused the damage, the protestors used the incident to once again rake up the issue that the dam is being constructed on a fragile site and that it will not only displace thousands of dwellers in the vicinity, but endanger the environment as well as the lives of the people.

Rich blue resource of the region

While some of the concerns of the protestors are bonafide, the fact of the matter is that the rich blue resource of the region—awashed as it is with the white waters from the Tibetan plateau—would not only be a power reservoir for the North East, but also for the rest of the country. But the protest that had got underway in Assam and one which is poised for a renewed bout is leading to a novel conflict between development and social sustenance.

The problem came into the limelight with the apprehension that China is undertaking a massive project to build five dams in the Shannan Prefecture in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). The exact settings are Gyatsa, Jieuxu, Langzhen, Zangmu and Zhongda. The exercise is slated to divert the waters of the Brahmaputra—Yarlung-Tsangpo in Tibet—to China’s water scarce North-Western and Northern provinces.

There is great trepidation that the diversion of the waters would adversely affect the downstream in the North East. The damming of the Brahmaputra, which started on 12 November 2010, marked the formal beginning of the 7.9 billion Yuan Zangmu Hydropower Station.

China’s “dam-constructing exercise”

China is known to be on a “dam-constructing exercise” on some its important rivers. The “Three Gorges Project” across the Yangtze River is perhaps the most well-known of the enterprises. The hurry to embark upon such projects is to ascertain that the uneven distribution of water in the country, which began with Mao’s plan in the nineteen-fifties to transfer water from the south to the north, is rectified.

The history of the People’s Republic’s South-North Water Transfer Project is a more than a decade old project which was planned in order to exploit the water resources available in the country.

The plan is to be achieved by implementing the aforesaid Diversion Project. Whereas the primary thrust is geared towards the diversion of the waters from the Yangtze River to the Yellow and Hai Rivers, the design to divert the waters of the Brahmaputra, located, as aforementioned, in TAR’s Yarlung Tsangpo is a cause of alarm for India, primarily the North East. The purpose of diverting the waters from the south to the north is to supply the industrialised areas of Northern China, which as a result of poor rainfall has become dry.

Dragon’s nefarious plan to divert the waters of Brahmaputra

The nefarious plan to divert the waters of Brahmaputra would adversely distress almost 150 million people who are dependent on the red river. Therefore, it would be India and to an extent Bangladesh which would have to bear the brunt of the proposed damming and diversion by the Dragon. Bangladesh has already witnessed great protest over India’s inability (read: West Bengal’s inability) to part with the requisite waters of the Teesta. Indeed, on a different vein the Teesta imbroglio could even lead to Sheikh Hasina losing her prime ministerial berth in December 2023 when Bangladesh goes to polls which in turn would affect the erstwhile East Pakistan’s relationship with India.

In addition, it is to be noted that China has embarked on an inequitable “development” project in TAR. Tibet’s high altitude, craggy terrain and uncongenial climate is geared towards the sustenance of livestock farming and traditional agriculture, activities that have kept the high landscape of the “Roof of the World” more or less intact.

But, Beijing’s policy of fast-track development driven by an industrial model that is not in consonance with Tibet’s topography is destroying the delicate ecosystem of the Tibetan plateau. It is also threatening to ruthlessly alter the natural hydrological regime of Tibet, which may deprive the indigenous population of their land were environmental crisis to unexpectedly come upon them.

Experts are also of the opinion that increased urbanisation and infrastructural development, by way of constructions like the Qinghai-Tibet railway which is being expanded to Shigatse and other places close to the Tibet-India border could destroy the permafrost and add to the undesirable effects of global warming that is all set to threaten the planet.

This would have a direct impact on the rivers that meander into India from Tibet and the crucial glacial mass which is speedily diminishing. These developments would result in a precarious situation. The waters that feed the lower riparian states would soon run dry and sound the death knell for the North East of India.

Water security- the newest of weapons in the hands of a section of people who are anti-establishment

An analysis for the disorder in the North East stops largely at the door of the various state governments to implement the centrist policy for the North East. The growing hostility in the region must also rest on the apathetic policy of these governments, as well as the dispensation’s failure to construct a holistic policy for the North East.

Water security is perhaps one of the newest of weapons in the hands of a section of people who are in any event anti-establishment. But an inability to nip the protests and if genuine the grievances of the people who are against mega development projects in the region could witness them playing into anti-Indian hands.

Insurgent groups such as ULFA (Independent) and its leaders are already in the grip of the Chinese. Indeed, in the past pro-Chinese statements have been made about Tibet and the Dalai Lama—almost as if ULFA (Independent) is a Public Relations Manager of the People’s Republic. It is, therefore, important to undertake a proper stock-taking exercise and ensure that the state mechanism and institutions do not have fail in the North East, leading thereby to the population losing faith in the state machinery and decreeing against it as is being presently witnessed in certain parts of the North East.

It must also be understood that narrow electoral and personal gains should not be permitted to become the drivers in the region. Correct governance must robustly replace any attempts to subvert rule of law.

The writer is a celebrated conflict analyst and bestselling author

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