Simon’s weekly wrap: Managing investment expectations

The investment case for China is proving contentious. Last week Kyle Wales of Flagship Asset management advised caution. Then this week Kea Nonyana (who correctly said energy would be a big play in 2022) said he likes China for 2023 and offered some good reasons. Investors are probably best served by always being cautious and never going all-in on any one strategy and these contrasting views certainly support this (read the transcript).

Schalk Louw of PSG Old Oak runs a local fear and greed index based on the CNN index for US markets. It’s currently indicating extreme greed, which suggests markets have got ahead of themselves after returning almost 9% for January. However, Louw points out that this index is more to manage expectations and emotions then trading advice for long-term investors (read the transcript).

I spoke with Sanlam Investments’ Carmen Mpelwane on the Capital & Counties Properties trading update. This stock has had a very tough time since the 2015 Brexit vote, but its latest trading update, and dividend declaration, shows a company well positioned as it holds a great asset in central London and has a strong balance sheet with very manageable debt.

I spoke with Nashil Chotoki of Redefine Properties on how malls traded over the holidays. Tenant revenue is above pre-pandemic levels, while foot traffic remains below as we make fewer trips. Importantly rental reversions are improving and now the big challenge is the cost of load shedding.

Also this week:

Natalie Kiewitt of PPS Investments encourages taxpayers to take advantage of some ‘fairly good’ tax benefits before the end of the tax year on February 28.