Scottish independence reset undermined by confusion over SNP strategy

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A special convention on Scottish independence over the weekend marked a chance for the country’s first minister Humza Yousaf to reset his Scottish National party’s strategy for leaving the UK after a damaging financing scandal and the sudden resignation of his predecessor, Nicola Sturgeon.

But in his first major speech to party members since replacing Sturgeon, Yousaf left many wondering if he was simply reiterating his predecessor’s policies. He said the SNP would regard winning the majority of Scottish seats in a UK general election as a mandate to negotiate on how to achieve Scottish independence, even though Westminster was unlikely to respond positively.

“I don’t know what the strategy is,” said Charles Archibald, a delegate who travelled from Stirling. “I heard a lot of people saying warm fuzzy things, but there is no real substance. We need to stop talking about the process and concentrate on the vision.”

The mixed messaging highlights the challenge the first minister faces in trying to satisfy SNP members who are impatient for independence in the face of Westminster’s refusal to drop its opposition to a rerun of the 2014 plebiscite.

The party’s attempt to get a repeat of the 2014 referendum, in which Scots decided by 55 to 45 per cent in favour of staying with the UK, has stalled after successive UK prime ministers rejected demands for a second vote.

Sturgeon tried to force the issue last year by going to the UK Supreme Court, but judges ruled that she did not have the legal authority to hold a vote without London’s agreement.

The then first minister devised her “de facto” referendum strategy where the SNP would regard winning more than 50 per cent of Scottish votes in the next UK election, expected to take place next year, as a mandate to negotiate the terms of separation with London.

Her plan was opposed by some of her own MPs who feared losing their seats if they turned a general election into a single-issue campaign on independence.

“[A referendum] continues to be our Plan A; we want to try to break Westminster intransigence to do that. But they are not giving us that, so we have to use the general election as a means of communicating the strength of feeling that Scotland has,” Yousaf said on Saturday.

But he admitted that Westminster politicians would have to decide how to give “democratic effect” to that decision.

Confusion over whether Yousaf’s plan was a “rehash” of Sturgeon’s de facto referendum strategy was “understandable given the ambiguity and confused message”, said James Mitchell, professor of public policy at Edinburgh university.

He added that the party would struggle to attract voters to its cause without first addressing longstanding questions over how it would manage an independent Scotland’s public finances and its trade with the rest of the UK. “It all sounds like a distraction,” he said.

The SNP’s strategy of putting independence at the heart of its campaign is partly informed by a desire to capitalise on the fact that support for leaving the UK is stronger than backing for the party itself.

A Sunday Times/Panelbase poll this month showed that the SNP could lose more than half of its 45 MPs in the next election and have fewer Scottish seats than Labour for the first time since 2010.

Labour strategists have said the party hopes to gain as many as 20 seats in Scotland, which would boost its prospects of securing a UK-wide majority.

Yousaf’s speech showed “just how bereft of fresh ideas the SNP truly is, even when it comes to their driving constitutional obsession”, said Ian Murray, Labour’s shadow Scottish secretary.

At the convention, delegates were more forgiving, however. Many welcomed the event as a way to involve members in policy discussions and an attempt to move on from a traumatic period that has been dominated by a police investigation into the party’s finances, which led to Sturgeon’s arrest earlier this month.

“I was very impressed and feel energised by the whole experience,” said Susan Campbell, from Milngavie outside Glasgow. She added that she felt her decision to back Yousaf in the SNP’s bitter leadership race had been vindicated by the event. “People have been asking to be listened to.”