Russia’s collapse has handed China a once-in-a-millennium opportunity

The Chinese economy’s period of extremely strong growth is over, despite its prowess in AI and batteries, for three reasons. First, Xi cracked down on China’s oligarchs, the entrepreneurs who had driven so much of its progress but had started to throw their weight around. The CCP is once again in total control; there are no longer any independent power centres. Real capitalism is dead. Second, the savagery of its lockdowns, its obsession with zero Covid and the cover-ups of the past few years demonstrate that China remains a fundamentally closed society. There is no real individual liberty, no freedom and thus no chance of another sustained economic boom.

Last but not least, China’s population fell 850,000 last year, a harbinger of a looming demographic implosion that will turn dozens of cities into ghost towns, throttle the banking system, starve the military and threaten permanent stagnation. India is now the world’s most populous nation, with 1.428 billion residents, against China’s 1.425 billion, according to the United Nations, with America third at 340 million. China’s population is expected to shrink by almost half during the next three quarters of a century, to just 766 million by 2100 – a decline precipitated by its abominable one-child policy, a reminder of the immorality of top-down social engineering.

By contrast, America’s population will continue to grow, hitting 394 million by the end of the century, assuming the country holds together despite its bitter ideological divisions. Unless China’s productivity suddenly rockets, unlikely in Xi’s repressive climate, the gap between the American and Chinese economies may never quite close, or will take much longer to do so than expected.

These limits to China’s model coincide with the beginnings of a fightback by the free world, symbolised by Italy’s withdrawal from the Belt and Road initiative. The West is no longer deluded about China’s intentions, its attachment to authoritarian imperialism, or its propensity to engage in espionage and dissembling, even if few realise the immensity of the challenge.

But at least the David Cameron-George Osborne “golden era” of close ties with China has long since been forgotten. Liz Truss is travelling to Taiwan next week to warn against China. The Aukus military pact is a great move, as is Britain’s decision to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Japan is rearming. India will become increasingly assertive. A Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis victory would accelerate attempts at decoupling the American and Chinese economies.

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Confident countries that believe their ascent will continue for the foreseeable future don’t usually choose to precipitate a major war – for example by invading Taiwan. As Robert Tombs, the historian, has pointed out, it is when nations feel that they are running out of time or that they are being cornered that they lash out.

So what next? Can we avoid a calamitous, global conflict that will set humanity back 50 years, at best? Will China’s elites see sense and bank their takeover of Putin’s Russia? Or will they worry that their own window of opportunity is closing, and decide to gamble on an invasion of Taiwan, especially if the unfathomably weak Biden is reelected? Britain must hope for the best, and prepare for the worst.

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