By (Mrs) Amb Narinder Chauhan
Russia launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine by land, air, and sea, early on Thursday, February 24, initiating a war that will have sweeping consequences for Ukraine, for Europe, and for the international order. Russia is finishing what it started in Ukraine in 2014 which heralded a new cold war and the US economic sanctions on Russia. With 44 m people Ukraine is the largest country by area in Europe after Russia. Ukraine became independent in 1991 after the fall of the USSR and aimed to join the NATO and EU, a move that Russia has bitterly opposed. Both Russia and the West see Ukraine as a buffer against each other. Russia considers Ukraine within its natural sphere of influence. In February 2014, the fall of a Moscow friendly President with an unequivocally Western-facing government provoked annexation by Russia of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, also the headquarter of the Russian orthodox church. Russia also backed an insurgency in the mostly Russian speaking Eastern Ukraine region, Donbas.
On 22 February 2022 Russia sent in its troops, tanks, and artillery into the two separatist regions of Donbas-Donetsk and Luhansk- hours after unilaterally recognizing them as independent countries and declaring them allies to loud cheering by the locals. Russian President Putin declared that ‘history is destiny, and that Ukraine will never get away from Russia’. In his Monday night speech, Putin spoke directly to the people of Ukraine and said, “Ukraine is not just a neighboring country…it’s an inalienable part of our history, culture and spiritual space”.
In further remarks on 22 February, Putin said that Ukraine could defuse the tensions by promising never to join NATO, recognizing Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and demilitarizing. Ukraine’s government has been firm in its resolve to determine its own future and to join NATO and EU in the future. The threat of another Russian invasion galvanized Ukrainian nationalism against Russia.
The crisis in Ukraine which has been building for months, entered a new phase on February 24th when Russia unexpectedly sent its troops beyond the eastern region of Donbas which effectively has been under Russian control for many years. Russia has shelled more than a dozen Ukrainian cities and towns with attacks from Russia, Belarus, and Crimea. An estimated 100,000 people have fled to Moldova, Romania and other neighboring countries as explosions and gunfire rocked major cities of Ukraine. The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declared martial law across the country. Ukrainians have been preparing for months, stockpiling gasoline, collecting firewood, formulating escape plans, and even arming themselves.
On Friday 25 February morning, Russia ordered an offensive on Kyiv, aimed at toppling the Zelensky government. Russia claimed control of the strategic Hostomel airport outside Kyiv, cutting the capital off from the West.
The US has imposed sanctions in response to what it calls the “greatest threat to Europe” since the Second World War. With the warning that Russia is now “setting up a rationale to go further”, US President Biden has announced sanctions on Russia, expressed his ‘outrage’ and called Putin’s move ‘bizarre’ and a clear violation of international law. The US suspects Russia has grander ambitions than Ukraine. Biden also announced the sending of US troops to shore up the three Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia – former Soviet republics that became independent and joined NATO. The US strategy now centers on punishing Russia and preventing further Russian military action-basically deterrence-since Biden has said that he will not send American forces to fight the Russians in Ukraine. It has been confirmed by the NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg that NATO troops will be deployed in NATO countries alone.
Putin’s decision to invade has, for now, scuttled the prospects of a diplomatic resolution between Russia and the US. A planned meeting between the US and Russian Foreign Ministers is now off, but not cancelled. Any future effort will necessitate a walk back by Russia from its military aggression-which appears unlikely now. The US and allies have found themselves deeply unprepared to deal with the fallout.
The US has imposed sanctions on banks close to Putin that together hold assets worth hundreds of billions of dollars. The sanctions also cover sovereign debts – cutting Russia off from western financing or raising money from the West-and three oligarchs and their families. But the US notably did not sanction Putin. “This is the beginning of the invasion, and this is the beginning of our response, all options are on the table”.
The EU has agreed to freeze European assets linked to Putin and Lavrov over the invasion, apart from targeting banks, politicians, officials and ban European investors from trade. Sanctioning banks limits their ability to trade internationally. According to the EU, these sanctions ‘will hurt Russia and will hurt a lot’.
In one of its most significant moves, Germany has halted go-ahead to the Nord Stream 2 project, a pipeline of more than 750miles long that would supply gas from Russia to Europe. This may be a pyrrhic victory. Though it puts Russia’s 11b $ investment at stake and as a by product relieves Russia’s geostrategic hold over Europe, as an immediate consequence the oil prices jumped to almost a hundred dollars per barrel, a nearly eight years high.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson called Putin a dictator and imposed sanctions on five Russian banks, as well as three oligarchs with ties to energy.
The Central European countries that were once part of Russia’s Warsaw Pact and are now members of NATO and EU, braced for the arrival of refugees. Poland has set up reception points on its border and Hungary and Slovakia have sent troops to their borders to manage the influx. Czech Republic, which closed its embassy in Kyiv, condemned Russia for a “barbaric act of aggression”. Hungary’s PM Viktor Orban, who has forged good ties with Putin, also condemned Russia while preparing humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
A central goal of the West is to protect Kyiv and President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government from falling. Can Putin be stopped? It is up to Putin now. Zelensky has expressed dissatisfaction over the western coalition efforts against Russia and has said his country has been ‘left alone to defend his state’ and ‘to fight Russia’. According to experts, Russia could flatten much of Kyiv and other Ukraine cities in days and render them helpless through other means-cyber-attacks, assaults on the electrical grid, the water supply, the banking system, in other words, “turning the country off”. There is little that the West can do to prevent a Russian military conquest, but it will be able to influence what happens afterward.
Meanwhile, more than 20,000 Indian students who are stranded in Ukraine were unable to return initially due to closure of airspace and inability to exchange currency as local stores have stopped trading dollars. Alternative evacuation routes are being planned and Indian embassies in Kyiv and in neighboring capitals are being strengthened to deal with the rapidly changing situation. Indian teams are setting up camps at the borders with Ukraine to help evacuate Indians. Late Saturday evening, early Sunday night several stranded students were safely evacuated from the region.
The Indian Foreign Minister has observed that the crisis has its roots in post -Soviet politics, the expansion of NATO and the dynamics between Russia and Europe. Walking a tightrope on the Ukraine crisis, and given its good relations with US, Russia and the EU, India has advocated immediate de-escalation of tensions and ‘constructive diplomacy’ to resolve the imbroglio.
The US is in consultation with India on the crisis in Ukraine. India has a historic and time – tested friendship with Russia. At the same time, its strategic partnership with the US has grown at an unprecedented pace over the last decade and half. PM Modi spoke to Russian President Putin late Thursday, 24 February appealing for an “immediate cessation of violence” and called for concerted action on all sides to return to the path of dialogue. The conversation took place hours after Ukraine’s urgent appeal to India for intervention. EAM Jaishankar also had a phone conversation with Sergei Lavrov and underlined that diplomacy and dialogue are the best way forward to deal with the issue.
Putin justified his response to what he alleges “aggressive actions” by Ukraine against the civilians of Donbas, and disregard by the west of its legitimate security concerns. According to analysts, Russians see neo-Nazis and extreme right-wing nationalism as the main ideology governing Ukraine; this was one of the key reasons for the use of force. Putin has warned that any interference would lead to ‘consequences you have never seen before’. In his address to the Russian Security Council on 25th February, Putin used strong language and referred to the Ukrainian authorities as neo-Nazis hiding heavy machinery in the middle of the capital city using civilians as human shields under advice from the Americans. Putin has called upon the Ukrainian military to topple the Zelensky government.
EAM received a phone call from his Ukrainian counterpart D kuleba on 25th evening, who shared his assessment of the ongoing situation; India emphasized dialogue as the way out and appreciated Ukraine’s support for the safe return of Indian nationals and students.
India’s abstention at the voting last night at the UNSC of which India is currently a non-permanent member, was a test case for India which is under pressure from the US, EU, and Ukraine to do more. On the other, Russia also expects India to take an independent stand and show understanding of Russian compulsions. The resolution condemning Russia failed because of the Russian veto. Apart from India, China and UAE abstained. India’s explanation of its vote appeared objective and urged adherence to the UN Charter and international law, at the same time keeping space for diplomacy and dialogue. India’s vote retains the option of reaching out and encouraging the parties to continue to engage despite the situation. The US has expressed understanding of India’s distinct relationship with Russia as it has asked every country with leverage with Russia to use it to protect rules based international order. This was the fourth time that the UNSC considered the Ukraine situation in less than four weeks. UNSC was not designed to be the platform to resolve great power conflict.
On the other hand, China in its vote explanation took Russia’s side, blaming NATO expansion for causing the crisis (if it were to snub Russia at this stage, it risked weakening its closest strategic partnership at a time when given the deteriorating security situation in Asia, it needs Russia more than ever before). China could also throw Russia a lifeline to counter Western sanctions which at any rate are a slow and unsatisfactory tool, but, nevertheless, the only ones available. The EU sanctions on Putin and Lavrov assets, for instance, appear to be largely symbolic as there is no concrete evidence of any specific assets having been identified.
Russian forces have struck targets across Ukraine and seized key facilities and swathes of territory. The Ukrainian military is no match for the Russian juggernaut. Putin is the one who will decide just how far Russia will go into Ukraine. Such a war could result in economic recession in Ukraine and possibly Russia, currency collapse and disruption to regional and global trade (notably for oil). It would also have a far reaching impact for the global economy and major humanitarian consequences. Analysts believe that once Russia installs a pro-Russia government in Kyiv, it will also have to be ready to face protracted unrest that may spread across multiple borders.
Russia has offered talks with Ukraine in Minsk, capital of Belarus to discuss Ukraine’s neutral status. Both sides are discussing logistics for possible talks.
(The author is a former Indian ambassador. She tweets:@nchauhanifs Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited).
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