Rupee may depreciate this week amid pessimistic market sentiments, firm dollar; USDINR to trade in this range

By Raj Deepak Singh

Rupee hit all time low last week amid strong dollar, persistent FII outflows and risk aversion in the global markets. Market sentiments were hurt as investors fear that high inflation is threatening to eat into corporate profits and restraint consumer spending. Additionally, outlook for global economy is looking gloomy amid supply chain disruption, lockdown in China and Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Further, rupee slipped on disappointing macroeconomic data. CPI data showed inflation surged to 7.79% in April and remained above RBI comfort zone for 4th consecutive month Whereas, US dollar rallied amid weak global market sentiments and hawkish statements from Fed officials. Fed officials signalled the need for 50bps hike at the next couple of meetings. Further, CPI data showed inflation eased a bit but unlikely to cool down quickly and derail Fed plan to tighten monetary policy aggressively.

We expect rupee to depreciate further in this week amid pessimistic global market sentiments and strong dollar. Demand for dollar may climb on concern that major central banks action to combat high inflation would hurt global economic growth. Market sentiments are hurt as supply disruption due to Covid-19 lockdown and war between Russia and Ukraine have heightened fears about global economic growth. On top of this major central banks are ending easy money era.

Additionally, traders will take cues from major economic data from US and will remain vigilant ahead of Fed Chair Powell speech to get the hint on future monetary stance USDINR since April 2021 is making higher highs on daily chart. Rupee is holding a strong support level of 76.50, as long it sustains above this level it can slip further till 77.80/78.00. Beyond 78.00 rupee is unlikely to sustain as it will work as strong and physiological resistance.

(Raj Deepak Singh is an Analyst – F&O, Currency, and Commodities at ICICIdirect. The views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing)