Rouble extends slide as fears over oil and gas sanctions bite

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MOSCOW — The rouble slumped to a more than seven-month low against the dollar on Tuesday, extending hefty losses from the previous session, as fears over the possible impact of sanctions on oil and gas hampered the Russian currency.

By 0852 GMT, the rouble was 1.9% weaker against the dollar at 69.01, having earlier hit its weakest level since May 11 of 69.5550.

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It had lost 1.7% to trade at 73.29 versus the euro , its weakest since May 6, and shed 2.4% against the yuan to 9.89, clipping a near six-month low.

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A near 5% slump against the dollar on Monday was its largest drop in one session since July 5. Still, the rouble remains the world’s best-performing currency this year, supported by capital controls and an initial collapse in imports as a result of Western sanctions over Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

The rouble’s weakening looks logical after the pressure of sanctions in recent weeks, said Veles Capital in a note, referencing the $60-per-dollar oil price cap and a ninth package of European Union sanctions against Moscow.

“On Monday, the pressure was seriously strengthened with information about preparations to introduce a ‘ceiling’ on the price of Russian gas from the start of 2023,” Veles Capital said.

The oil embargo and price cap are unlikely to be directly impacting the rouble, said Dmitry Polevoy, head of investment at Locko Invest, as current revenues come from contracts in the previous one to two months, when prices were higher and volumes more stable.

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“Their direct impact will likely be felt closer to Jan-Feb, but indirectly, they may have worked their way into traders’ and speculators’ expectations,” Polevoy said.

The rouble has now lost more than 11% in December against the U.S. dollar. The central bank, which held interest rates at 7.5% on Friday, warned on Monday evening that the rouble’s weakening would have a pro-inflationary impact in the coming months.

The rouble may recoup some losses later in the month, when exporters convert foreign currency revenue into roubles to pay local liabilities.

Brent crude oil, a global benchmark for Russia’s main export, was unchanged at $79.8 a barrel.

Russian stock indexes opened around two-month lows.

The dollar-denominated RTS index was down 3.2% at 960.0 points. The rouble-based MOEX Russian index was 1.2% lower at 2,103.5 points.

Shares in Lukoil slumped around 11.6% after the oil major’s dividend record date. (Reporting by Alexander Marrow; Editing by Dhanya Ann Thoppil and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)