Rebound in oil prices gives world stocks a lift in holiday trade

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LONDON/SYDNEY — A rebound in oil prices on concerns of tight supply gave world stocks a lift on Monday in a session hit by a U.S. holiday.

Oil got a reprieve as lower output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), unrest in Libya and sanctions on Russia outweighed fears of a global recession.

“Oil fundamentals remain supportive,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodity research at ING.

“Clearly OPEC is still struggling to hit its agreed output levels,”

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Output from the 10 members of OPEC in June fell 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 28.52 million bpd, off their pledged increase of about 275,000 bpd, a Reuters survey showed on Friday.

Brent crude steadied at $111.59, while U.S. crude eased 12 cents to $108.32 per barrel. Both fell over $1 in early trade.

MSCI’s world equity index gained 0.25% and MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.14%, after losing 1.8% last week.

Global equities hit 18-month lows last month on anxiety about rising inflation and interest rates, but have since made minor gains.

“Some markets are starting to find their footing but there’s a lot of volatility right now,” said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management, pointing to risks from the release of key U.S. non-farm payrolls data later this week.

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European stocks rallied 0.7% and Britain’s FTSE rose over 1%, helped by gains in oil and gas companies.

Chinese blue chips closed 0.7% higher, boosted by a 4.65% surge in Chinese healthcare stocks. Cities in eastern China tightened COVID-19 curbs on Sunday amid new coronavirus clusters.

Japan’s Nikkei added 0.84%, though South Korea dipped 0.22%.

U.S. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures fell 0.7% and 0.8% respectively, however, as recent soft U.S. data suggested downside risks for this week’s June payrolls report. U.S. stock markets are shut on Monday.

TECHNICAL RECESSION

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s much watched GDP Now forecast slid to an annualized -2.1% for the second quarter, implying the country was already in a technical recession.

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The payrolls report on Friday is forecast to show jobs growth slowing to 270,000 in June, with average earnings slowing a touch to 5.0%.

Minutes of the Fed’s June policy meeting on Wednesday are expected to sound hawkish, however, given the committee chose to hike rates by a super-sized 75 basis points.

The market is pricing in around an 85% chance of another hike of 75 basis points this month and rates at 3.25-3.5% by year end.

“But the market has also moved to price in an increasingly aggressive rate cut profile for the Fed into 2023 and 2024, consistent with a growing chance of recession,” said analysts at NAB.

“Around 60bps of Fed cuts are now priced in for 2023.”

Cash Treasuries were shut but futures extended their gains, implying 10-year yields were holding around 2.88% having fallen 61 basis points from their June peak.

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German 10-year government bond yields, the benchmark for the euro zone, rallied 5 basis points to 1.276% after plunging last week as investors rushed to safe-haven bonds. Bond yields move inversely to price.

In currencies, investor demand for the most liquid safe harbor has tended to benefit the U.S. dollar, which was steady near two-decade highs against a basket of competitors at 105.09 .

The euro was flat at $1.0425, not far from its recent five-year trough of $1.0349. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates this month for the first time in a decade, and the euro could get a lift if it decides on a more aggressive half-point move.

The Japanese yen also attracted safe haven flows late last week, dragging the dollar back to 135.38 yen from a 24-year top of 137.01, though it was up 0.18% on the day.

A high dollar and rising interest rates have not been kind to non-yielding gold, which was trading at $1,808 an ounce , down 0.13% after hitting a six-month low at $1,784 last week.

(Editing by Sam Holmes, Shri Navaratnam and Ed Osmond)