My grandparents helped shape Australia. Migration will also be key to our future

That scenario projects 23 per cent of the population to be aged 65 or over by 2060. As of 2020-21, nearly 17 per cent of Australia’s 25.7 million people were over 65.

But if you take migration out of the picture, we get a very different nation. Assuming the number of people moving to Australia equals the number of people leaving, Australia’s median age by 2060 will reach 46.6, and 28.7 per cent of the population – nearly a third – would be aged over 65.

This would have profound effects on the cost of health, aged care and age pensions.

The 2021 Intergenerational Report points out that population ageing will reduce the number of people in the workforce, meaning fewer people paying income tax.

“This presents long-term economic and fiscal challenges, similar to those faced in most comparable countries,” the report noted.

Migration slows this ageing effect down because migrants are typically younger. In many cases, they move to Australia for study and then stay on as skilled migrants.

According to the Grattan institute, skilled migrants “tend to be younger, higher-skilled, and earn higher incomes than the typical Australian”. They are also more likely to work full time, compared to the general Australian population, and are increasingly likely to be highly educated.

Those workers pay taxes in Australia, which helps fund our health and aged care services which are only becoming more expensive as the nation ages. They also spend money here, helping to keep the economy ticking, and other people in various jobs.

I’ve had plenty of correspondence in the past week from people who don’t like the idea of Australia taking in more migrants. Won’t that just add to our ageing problem in the future? What about the amount of housing, or infrastructure including roads?

The government does need to ensure there is enough infrastructure to support our growing population, and the Intergenerational Report noted that migration was not a complete solution and should be well managed to keep Australia’s high living standards.

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But what happens if we don’t take in enough migrants? There are lessons here from the country with the oldest population – Japan. Their fertility rate is 1.33, according to the OECD, and their median age 48.7 and growing towards 54.7 by 2050.

The government there fears a growing wave of business closures as owners reach retirement age with no one to replace them despite healthy earnings, as highlighted in a recent New York Times article. Key businesses there could close, as even many workers who could potentially take the reins near retirement themselves.

That is just one example of the risks faced by an ageing country.

After my grandparents arrived in Australia, they became respectively a cook, train driver and a school principal. Between them, they had five children and more than a dozen grandchildren, who have had jobs as varied as artists, veterinarians, doctors, social workers, and yes; one journalist.

In their small way, my grandparents came to Australia and made the most out of their new circumstances and what this country has to offer. It’s people like them who will help shape the future.

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