The southwest monsoon is expected over the Kerala coast in the next 48 hours, said the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday as Indians wait for the annual rains crucial to the economy.
The IMD’s forecast said that the latest meteorological features associated with monsoon onset over Kerala show that there is (a) persistence of westerly winds over south Arabian Sea; (b) increase in the depth of westerly winds up to middle tropospheric levels; and (c) increase of Cloudiness over areas covering south east Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep and Kerala coasts.
“Under such a scenario, the conditions are becoming favorable for monsoon onset over Kerala during the next 48 hours,” the IMD said.
The conditions are also favourable for further the monsoon’s advance into some more parts of south Arabian Sea, the entire Lakshadweep area, Maldives and Comorin, more parts Southwest and central Bay of Bengal, some more parts of northeast Bay of Bengal, and some parts of India’s northeastern states.
Skymet, the private weather forecasting agency, had predicted the onset to be around June 9. Skymet meteorologists had predicted it to be around June 7, with an error of three days.
A delayed onset of southwest monsoon could delay the sowing of critical kharif crops, particularly that of paddy.
June rains over most parts of India are expected to be ‘below normal’ during the four-month southwest monsoon season ending in September, according to IMD.
The southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days.
The IMD had said mid-May the southeast monsoon might arrive in Kerala by June 4. The rains arrived in the southern state on May 29 last year, June 3 in 2021, June 1 in 2020, June 8 in 2019 and May 29 in 2018.
India is expected to get normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season despite the evolving El Nino conditions, the IMD had earlier said.
Northwest India is expected to see normal to below-normal rainfall. East, northeast, central India and the southern peninsula are expected to receive normal rainfall at 94-106 per cent of the long-period average of 87 centimeters.
According to the IMD, rainfall between 96 and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 87 cm is considered ‘normal’. Rainfall less than 90 per cent of the long-period average is considered ‘deficient’, between 90 per cent and 95 per cent is ‘below normal’, between 105 percent and 110 per cent is ‘above normal’ and more than 100 per cent is ‘excess’ precipitation.
Normal rainfall is critical for India’s agricultural landscape, with 52 per cent of the net cultivated area relying on it. It is also crucial for the replenishing of reservoirs critical for drinking water apart from power generation across the country.
Rain-fed agriculture accounts for about 40 per cent of the country’s total food production, making it a crucial contributor to India’s food security and economic stability.
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