Monsoon likely to hit Kerala coast within next 2-3 days, says IMD

The southwest monsoon might hit the Kerala coast in the next 2-3 days but the onset might not be as strong as predicted earlier, some weathermen opined.

Both the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and private weather forecasting agency Skymet had predicted that the monsoon will hit the mainland on May 26 or 27. Both the forecasts were with a model error of plus and minus four days.

“As per the latest meteorological indications, westerly winds have strengthened in the lower levels over the south Arabian Sea and deepened. There is an increase in cloudiness over Kerala coast and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea. Hence, conditions are becoming favorable for monsoon onset over Kerala during the next 2-3 days. Further conditions are also favourable for the advance of Southwest Monsoon into some more parts of Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area during the same period,” the met department said in its latest weather advisory.

“IN all likelihood, the monsoon will hit the Kerala coast before June 1,” Mahesh Palawat, vice president meteorology and climate change at Skymet Weather, told Business Standard.

But, Palawat warned that the onset might not be as strong as was earlier expected because southwesterly winds haven’t gathered much pace.

“There won’t be any heavy downpour with the onset of monsoon and rains will remain within the range in Kerala and Andhra Pradesh, which can be called as a weak onset,” Palawat said.

Earlier, a senior met department official discounted the fact that rains have been delayed, saying that though the monsoons did not arrive on May 27, they were still within the range of plus or minus four days.

“For us, the onset of monsoon has not been delayed, because as per our (IMD’s) parameters if the rainfall arrives within the standard deviation range it is concerned with a normal onset,” the IMD official clarified.

A timely onset of monsoon though, a good sign, does not guarantee a strong progress across the country.

However, if rains arrive on time in the key agriculture states of Central, North and West India, it could spur sowing of kharif crops where acreage this year is expected to be good due to remunerative return to farmers in the just concluded rabi harvest.

Farm production depends not only on the quantum of total rains but timeliness and geographical spread of the monsoons.

Already, private weather forecasting agency, Skymet, has said that monsoon in the first half of the 2022 season (June and July months) is expected to be much better than the second half. This could have a serious impact on the final harvest of crops because July and August are the most important months in terms of total quantum of rains in the four-month southwest monsoon season.

Last month, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted that the southwest monsoon over the country as a whole in 2022 is expected to be ‘normal’ at 99 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

The forecast is with a model error of plus and minus 5 percent. Monsoon between 96-104 per cent of the LPA is considered to be ‘normal’.

Earlier, private weather forecasting agency, Skymet, had said that the southwest monsoon in 2022 was expected to be ‘normal’ at 98 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

Skymet’s forecast too is with an error margin of plus and minus 5 percent.

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