Met raises forecasts as UK prepares to swelter in record temperatures

The Met Office raised its heatwave forecast for the UK in the coming days, as the country prepares for record temperatures that are expected to cause disruptions to travel, hospitals, schools and workplaces.

There is now a 90 per cent chance the UK will set a new temperature record this week, and a 60 per cent chance of reaching 40C, according to Met Office forecaster Becky Mitchell.

London and other parts of south-east England are under a red warning for exceptional heat on Monday and Tuesday, with highs forecast to reach 41C in some places. The previous UK temperature record of 38.7C was set in Cambridge in 2019. Areas of southern Scotland, including Dundee and Perth, are now under an amber alert.

While such high temperatures are common in some other parts of the world, Britain’s typically mild climate means that infrastructure such as rail lines and buildings are often not designed to cope with extreme heat.

Both Network Rail and Transport for London have warned of disruptions because of the risk of rails buckling in the heat and have asked passengers to travel only if necessary.

Such hot weather also poses serious health risks, including heat exhaustion and heatstroke, and is linked to increased rates of mortality.

Cabinet Office minister Kit Malthouse is set to chair a meeting of the government’s Cobra emergency committee on Monday as it steps up preparations for what has been declared a “national emergency”.

Boris Johnson, the outgoing prime minister, was criticised on Saturday after he failed to attend a Cobra meeting of ministers and officials to discuss the looming heatwave. Johnson stayed instead at his Chequers country residence, ahead of a thank-you party for supporters on Sunday.

Senior government officials held a meeting on Sunday to discuss the potential impact of the heat on the transport system and the NHS.

Network Rail, the rail infrastructure operator, will put speed restrictions in place in England and Wales between 12pm and 8pm on Monday and Tuesday. TfL will also apply speed restrictions on some parts of its network, resulting in reduced services and delays.

Dominic Raab, deputy prime minister, said on Sunday it was up to employers whether their staff worked from home.

But Malthouse suggested this could be advisable given the disruption to services, saying: “If [staff] don’t have to travel, this may be a moment to work from home.” The GMB trade union has called for a maximum indoor workplace temperature of 25°C in line with World Health Organisation guidelines.

Health Secretary Steve Barclay met ambulance chiefs on Saturday, and said extra support would be put in place for health services on Monday and Tuesday.

NHS Providers, which represents leaders across the NHS, warned there could be disruption to some planned care, as well as added pressure on emergency care, with staffing levels already affected by Covid-related absences.

“We are hearing that some operating theatres are having to be stood down because they’re getting too hot,” said Miriam Deakin, director of policy and strategy at NHS Providers. “The conditions are also making it hard to keep key services running.”

The Department for Education is not advising schools to close. But some school leaders said they were taking local decisions to shut early on Monday.

The Harris Federation, a group of 51 academies, said in buildings where heat was a known issue, schools would shut at 1pm after providing lunch, but remain open for children who wanted to stay.

Steve Chalke, the founder of the Oasis academy chain, said schools were adapting according to their individual circumstances, but would all stay open as children’s homes would often be warmer than school.