‘I’ve Never Seen Anything Like This’: Why Barbenheimer Has Box Office Analysts Reeling

Barbie and Oppenheimer are quite possibly this summer’s two most anticipated movies. In fact, they may even be the two most anticipated movies of the year — and they’re releasing on the same day.

The dual opening of Barbie and Oppenheimer on July 21 — a phenomenon the Internet has dubbed “Barbenheimer” — is taking the world by storm. Barbie, a pink-tacular romp through Barbie Land starring Margot Robbie as the Mattel doll, is competing head-to-head at the box office with Oppenheimer, Christopher Nolan’s weighty atomic bomb drama. The two blockbusters occupy entirely different zones of cinema, yet their same-day release has rendered the two forever linked.

It led some to believe that either Warner Bros. or Universal, the studios behind Barbie and Oppenheimer respectively, would blink and move their release dates to avoid the competition. But obviously, that didn’t happen, so what’s the deal? Why would Hollywood executives schedule two highly anticipated big-budget blockbusters on the same day?

Well, to put it simply: Barbenheimer is unique.

“I’ve been in the business of tracking and analyzing box office trends and movies for 30 years now, and I’ve never quite seen anything like this,” Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore, told IGN.

“I’ve been in the business… for 30 years now, and I’ve never quite seen anything like this.

According to Dergarabedian, the general idea at play is counter-programming — for a gaming parallel, think about when Nintendo released Animal Crossing: New Horizons on the same day that Bethesda unveiled Doom Eternal. In Hollywood, though, counter-programming is a traditional method wherein studios will line up releases of two very different movies that are likely to pull in very different audiences.

Dergarabedian explained further: “Often you’ll see, say, an action movie going up against a rom-com. Or an R-rated drama and a PG-rated animated family film going on the same weekend. It’s just sort of common sense.”

But Barbenheimer is a different beast of counter-programming. The two films have captured Internet culture for months now, with fans doing everything from printing Barbenheimer T-shirts to scheduling their entire days around a Barbie-Oppenheimer double feature. In fact, Variety reported that by July 17, more than 40,000 AMC Stubs members had purchased tickets to see Barbie and Oppenheimer on the same day.

“It’s a gift to the marketing departments to have this organic viral groundswell surrounding these movies,” Dergarabedian said. “And being this odd-couple double feature makes it even more notable. You probably have people who necessarily aren’t even movie fans or movie buffs who know the opening dates for both these movies.”

Embracing Competition

The Barbenheimer movement has grown so strong that even each movie’s stars are playing into the phenomenon. Nolan and Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer’s leading man, embraced the film event of the summer, saying that it can only be a positive thing.

“I think it’s great. I mean, I’ll be going to see Barbie. I can’t wait to see it,” Murphy previously told IGN. “I think it’s just great for the industry and for audiences that we have two amazing films by amazing filmmakers coming out the same day. Could spend a whole day in the cinema, what’s better than that?”

The question remains: Will “spending a whole day in the cinema” hurt each movie’s box office potential? Traditionally, studios try to space out their release dates so as to prevent blockbusters from cannibalizing each other’s box office numbers. Will Barbie and Oppenheimer fall victim to that cannibalization?

In Dergarabedian’s eyes, this doesn’t seem to be the case. Thanks to the Barbenheimer craze, it’s more likely that the same-day release will boost each movie’s box office potential.

“Could spend a whole day in the cinema, what’s better than that?

“Ordinarily, two movies this big and this popular could have the potential to cannibalize each other,” Dergarabedian confirmed. “What I think they’re going to do in this case is be additive and complementary rather than creating a cannibalization.”

He continued: “Oppenheimer is going to appeal to a more mature demographic. That demographic doesn’t necessarily run out opening weekend, but they are going to be reading reviews and listening to pieces on the radio about Oppenheimer. And that will make the film of long-term performer in theaters. Barbie is going to be more front loaded, I think, because people are going to really want to be there. The FOMO factor is going to be off the charts for Barbie.”

Dergarabedian’s hypothesis is supported by current tracking numbers. Over the past few weeks, each movie’s opening weekend tracking has continued to rise. According to The Hollywood Reporter, Barbie is currently looking at a $70-80 million domestic opening, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the final tally surpassed that number. Meanwhile, Oppenheimer is tracking for a domestic opening weekend in the range of $40 million. It makes sense that Oppenheimer, a three-hour long R-rated drama targeted for mature audiences, would bring in less than Greta Gerwig’s fantastical pink world, but the fact remains that the outstanding level of Internet buzz has likely benefitted each movie.

“Barbie is inherently more commercial on the surface of it,” Dergarabedian said. “With Oppenheimer, I think it’s going to ride a wave of: ‘If you’re a film buff and you want to see the highest quality of movies, go see Oppenheimer.’ It’s hard to reverse engineer it, but the success of Barbie could also boost Oppenheimer. Because there may be people who would ordinarily just see Barbie and have no interest in Oppenheimer and vice versa, who will now see each movie just to be a part of that phenomenon.”

An Accidental Phenomenon

Is it possible that, somehow, the studios expected the Internet to go crazy over Barbie and Oppenheimer’s same-day release? Are they playing 4-D marketing chess here? Probably not, but the Barbenheimer phenomenon has proven to be one of the greatest unintentional marketing campaigns ever seen.

“I don’t think this was planned, but I think that’s why it’s worked out so well, because it’s very organic and authentic. Unless we’re just puppets on a string and I’m missing something, but I don’t think so.” Dergarabedian joked.

Whatever the final box office numbers be, the Barbenheimer movement is a great sign for movies, one that proves that films can still capture the zeitgeist in a significant way. And, of course, it’s just so much fun.

“The cool thing about it is it’s all really positive stuff,” Dergarabedian said. “It’s a fun campaign. It’s a really positive box office horse race. And both films are benefiting from this.”

Carson Burton is a freelance news writer for IGN. You can follow him on Twitter at @carsonsburton.