IPL Qualification Scenarios: How PBKS can reach playoffs despite defeat to DC

Punjab Kings’ 15-run defeat to Delhi Capitals on Wednesday has dented their playoff hopes which were already not so bright. PBKS however are still mathematically alive in the playoffs race with three spots still up for grabs. Defending champions Gujarat Titans are the only team to qualify for the knockout phase so far.

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With six games left in IPL 2023 league phase, we take a look at each team’s chances and what they need to make it to the playoffs.

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Chennai Super Kings (13 matches, 15 points, +0.381 NRR)

Remaining match: vs DC (20 May in Delhi)

CSK can reach the playoffs with a win in their last league game against Delhi Capitals and can also finish in top-two if they achieve a higher net run rate (NRR) than Lucknow Super Giants who can tie them on 17 points. In case CSK lose to DC, they would hope no more than two of LSG, RCB or MI do better than them.

Lucknow Super Giants (13 matches, 15 points, +0.304 NRR)

Remaining match: vs KKR (20 May in Kolkata)

It’s a simple equation for LSG. Win against KKR and reach the playoffs. They can also finish in the top-two if CSK lose to DC or despite a win register an inferior NRR to LSG. In case LSG lose to KKR, they will need at least two of CSK, MI and RCB to not cross 15 points.

Mumbai Indians (13 matches, 14 points, -0.128 NRR)

Remaining match: vs SRH (21 May in Mumbai)

The defeat to LSG dented Mumbai Indians’ chances but PBKS’s loss to DC has boosted their hopes. However, they can still get eliminated despite beating Sunrisers Hyderabad. If CSK and LSG win their last matches and Royal Challengers Bangalore win their last two games then, MI will most likely lose to RCB in the NRR race. Currently, RCB has an NRR of +0.166 and MI have an NRR of -0.128. MI will hope to beat SRH and get to 16 points and not for more than two CSK, LSG and RCB to win their respective last matches. If MI lose their last match, then they will hope for RCB to lose at least one of their upcoming games and not have a better NNR than them.

Royal Challengers Bangalore (12 matches, 12 points, +0.166 NRR)

Remaining matches: vs SRH (18 May in Hyderabad), vs GT (21 May in Bengaluru)

RCB defeated Rajasthan Royals by 112 runs in their last game to take their NRR from -0.345 to +0.166. If they win their last two matches, they should qualify for playoffs. If they lose one then they will need MI to also lose their last match. In such a case, RCB have an edge over MI with their positive NRR.

Rajasthan Royals (13 matches, 12 points, +0.140 NRR)

Remaining match: vs PBKS (19 May in Dharamsala)

RR can only reach 14 points and CSK and LSG are already ahead of them. In such a case, RR will need to beat PBKS in their last game and will need MI to lose their last match, RCB to lose at least one of their last two games to have any chance of qualification. In the end, NRR will play a big role in deciding the qualification if all three teams finish on 14 points.

Kolkata Knight Riders (13 matches, 12 points, -0.256 NRR)

Remaining match: vs LSG (20 May in Kolkata)

KKR can also only reach 14 points which means they would not want MI and RCB to get more than the same number of points. CSK and LSG with 15 points each are already ahead of them while GT have reached the playoffs. With only the fourth spot to fight for, KKR will be in contention if MI lose to SRH and RCB failed to win one of their last two games. The NRR will then become the deciding factor if teams get stuck on 14 points.

Punjab Kings (13 matches, 12 points, -0.308 NRR)

Remaining matches: vs RR (19 May in Dharamsala)

With the defeat to DC, PBKS’ qualification hopes have been dented and also their NRR. Now they can only hope to beat RR and reach 14 points. In this case, they will not want RCB and KKR to reach 14 points. Also, they will want MI to lose to SRH. In case of a tie on points, NRR will be deciding factor and PBKS are currently not strong on that front.

Delhi Capitals and Sunrisers Hyderabad are already out of the playoffs race.

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