India is expected to see a normal monsoon this year with a long-period average (LPA) of 96 per cent between June and September, according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). In a media briefing, M Ravindran, secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, said that IMD expects monsoon 2023 to be normal with a rainfall of 83.5 centimetres.
This comes just a day after India’s private forecaster Skymet predicted a “below normal” rainfall this monsoon with an LPA of 94 per cent.
IMD said that region-wise normal rains are expected over peninsular India, adjoining East Central India, East India, North East India and North West India. It also noted that below-normal conditions might prevail over some parts of North West India, parts of West Central India and North East India.
El Nino impact during second half of the monsoon season
IMD added that El Nino’s impact might be felt during the second half of the monsoon season. Also, in the past, 60 per cent of El Nino years have been normal monsoon years.
Also, the Indian Ocean Dipole which is another parameter for Southwest monsoon is expected to be positive. Apart from this, snow cover over the Eurasia and Northern Hemisphere during the spring season has been low which will also have a positive impact on the Indian monsoon.
“The negative impact of El Nino will be countered by positive IOD and low snow cover over the North Hemisphere and Eurasia that will ultimately result in normal monsoon, ” Said IMD DG Mrytunjoy Mohapatra.
Why is rainfall important to India?
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, 51 per cent of India’s farmed area, accounting for 40 per cent of production, is rain-fed and monsoon critical. Moreover, 47 per cent of India’s population depends on agriculture for their livelihood. So, a good monsoon is directly correlated to a healthy rural economy.
What is a “normal” monsoon?
IMD uses the long-period average (LPA) to determine if the rainfall is “normal”, “below normal”, or “above normal”. The LPA, according to IMD’s website, “is the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval (like month or season) average over a long period like 30 years, 50 years, etc.”
Usually, in India, a 50-year LPA covers large variations on either side caused by years of unusually high or low rainfall due to El Nino or La Nina.
India defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 88 centimetres (35 inches) for the four-month season beginning June.
IMD maintains LPAs for the entire country on a national and local level.
What is a “below normal” monsoon?
If the seasonal rainfall is between 90 to 95 per cent of LPA, it is called a “below normal” monsoon.
What are “above normal” and “excess” monsoons?
If the seasonal rainfall is between 105 to 110 per cent of LPA, it is called above normal monsoon. Moreover, if it is above 110 per cent of LPA, it is called “excess” rainfall.
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