Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’s Strong Second Weekend Proves Superhero Fatigue Was Never the Issue

Unfortunately for Marvel, steep box office drops in its movies’ second week have become a trend.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever dropped a concerning 63.34% in the week after its opening, according to data provided to IGN by Comscore (see chart below). Thor: Love and Thunder? An even worse 67.65%. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness? A similarly concerning 67.05%. It all culminated in Marvel’s steepest second-week drop in Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, whose box office gross plummeted a staggering 69.88%. All signs pointed to trouble for the future of the typically thoroughly reliable MCU, and worries over so-called “superhero fatigue” (aided by Shazam: Fury of the Gods’ and Black Adam’s lackluster box office returns on the DC side) reared their heads.

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But leave it to James Gunn to buck the distressing trend. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 not only boasted a second-week box office hold that puts the rest of Marvel’s recent movies to shame, but one that marked a return to the MCU’s golden days: a stunning (for a superhero movie, anyway) 47.63% hold.

So we’re not just drowning you in numbers, let’s put that in perspective. The last time a Marvel movie held like that in its second week was the first Black Panther all the way back in 2018, which stayed steady from an already stellar $202 million opening weekend to drop only 44.72%. After Black Panther, the only movie with a better second-week hold than Guardians 3 is the first Thor more than a decade ago, dipping down only 47.20%.

“But if the movie works, that really transcends any of those preconceived notions or negative biases.

That means Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, at least in its second week, has the third-best hold of any MCU movie ever. And if that’s not enough: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 has already surpassed Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’s entire theatrical gross in just two weeks. 

So how did that happen? To put it in the most ridiculously simple of terms, it was good. Paul Dergarabedian, Senior Media Analyst for Comscore, acknowledges that “there’s been this overall view that the bloom is off the roses a bit with the Marvel brand. But I guess this just proves it’s not about the brand.”

“It’s about the movie, and Guardians delivers,” he tells IGN. “Movies stand on their own. People may have particular biases against a brand or a star or a genre. But if the movie works, that really transcends any of those preconceived notions or negative biases.”

In short, Dergarabedian agrees it’s not superhero fatigue: “It’s bad movie fatigue.”

The Power of Word-of-Mouth

By all accounts, Guardians Vol. 3 “works” more than other recent MCU movies, at least going by fan and critical sentiment. It stands at a solid 82% “fresh” critical rating on Rotten Tomatoes, with an even better 94% audience rating. 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’s Rotten Tomatoes score, meanwhile, presents a stark contrast, with a 47% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes and a much better – but still lower than Guardians – 83% audience score. 

Going by another sentiment aggregator, Guardians Vol. 3 has an A grade on Cinemascore, which polls fans hitting the theaters on opening weekend. Quantumania has a B – which might not sound so bad until you consider that it’s tied with Eternals for the lowest MCU Cinemascore.

Basically: audiences aren’t dumb, and they want to spend their hard-earned cash on movies they know are of quality.

“We’ve seen this though with a lot of movies recently, movies that were well-reviewed but also mostly, and more importantly, beloved by audiences, had high audience scores, like John Wick: Chapter 4, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Super Mario Bros. Movie, and others that have held in there,” Dergarabedian says. “It’s been a trend that movies that are ‘good,’ or received as being quality films, or crowd pleasers, the reflection of that happens with the mass, in the numbers.”

In addition to the word-of-mouth, Dergarabedian says there’s a “confluence of factors” that lead to a steady second- (and beyond) week hold. On the Guardians front, for one, there’s the Gunn of it all, who stands as the only writer/director to keep the reins of an entire trilogy in the MCU. Given that he’s now headed off to head the DCU and he’s vocal in interacting with fans on Twitter, there’s a certain amount of trust he’s built with the audience.

“He’s known especially in the superhero realm as a notable director and visionary and all that,” Dergarabedian says.

“You can’t just slap a label on something and expect the audience just to show up.

And even Gunn has commented on the issue of “superhero fatigue” – and he seems to get the issue.

“I think there is such a thing as superhero fatigue,” he told Rolling Stone in a recent interview. “I think it doesn’t have anything to do with superheroes.”

“It has to do with the kind of stories that get to be told, and if you lose your eye on the ball, which is character… If you don’t have a story at the base of it, just watching things bash each other, no matter how clever those bashing moments are, no matter how clever the designs and the VFX are, it just gets fatiguing, and I think that’s very, very real.”

There are, of course, plenty of other factors too, with the stars – and Chris Pratt in particular – being one of them. Despite Pratt not being on social media himself, and having garnered some backlash from fans over the past few years, Dergarabedian points out that Pratt has become “embedded in the culture” nonetheless.

Plus, after the mega-hit Super Mario Bros. Movie last month, Pratt’s now back-to-back on solid returns. While there are plenty more blockbusters to come in 2023, it’s not terribly unlikely that Pratt could have two of the top-grossing movies of the year.

There’s also the fact that its second weekend happened over Mother’s Day weekend, where families often head out to the theaters to celebrate, and there’s a certain lack of competition that will go away when Fast X hits theaters this Friday. But, despite the fact that Fast X will certainly take the crown as the No. 1 movie of the weekend, Dergarabedian isn’t worried about it affecting Guardians Vol. 3 too much, as a “rising tide raises all ships.”

“There is enough audience interest out there that both these films can do well,” he says. “And if the train continues a solid third weekend hold, it just means we need to look at the long game here. It’s chess, it ain’t checkers.”

And looking ahead even further, the trend could continue to be beneficial for things over at Gunn’s new home in DC. The Flash debuts on June 16, and should it get better reception than Shazam: Fury of the Gods and Black Adam, it could have rosier financial prospects than them too, despite the controversy surrounding star Ezra Miller.

All in all, there are worse trends to have than good movies doing well at the box office.

“It is encouraging,” Dergerabedian says. “The fans are very savvy, very smart. You can’t just slap a label on something and expect the audience just to show up. No matter what, they want to have a solid movie going experience.”

Alex Stedman is a Senior News Editor with IGN, overseeing entertainment reporting. When she’s not writing or editing, you can find her reading fantasy novels or playing Dungeons & Dragons.