Fearful Tory MPs go absent from Commons in bid to protect marginals

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A growing number of Tory MPs with slim majorities are cutting back on the time they are spending in Westminster in a bid to shore up their electoral prospects in their constituencies, as gloom grips the party ahead of the next election.

US pollster Frank Luntz told Tory MPs in a briefing last week that any of them with a majority of less than 15,000 votes were at risk of losing their seats. Although boundary changes are set to come into force that could change the electoral calculus, more than 180 Tory MPs currently have majorities below that threshold.

Conservative MPs defending marginals are able to apply for “slips” — permission to be away from the Commons — for up to one week each month to dedicate more time to campaigning in their home areas, and are being offered special help to try and improve their chances of re-election, several told the Financial Times.

Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) is focusing on an “80/20” strategy to save its 80 tightest marginals and win 20 extra seats at the general election, while also preparing for four upcoming by-elections.

Special assistance for these 80 seats includes surveys of local voters, profiling the make-up of constituencies, money to fund campaigning and help creating campaign literature including bespoke “newspapers”. 

Polling in a series of the 80/20 marginals has revealed that some incumbents have poor name recognition among local voters, according to one Tory insider.

You have to ask the question, where on earth are they?

Members with low visibility have been told they “need to raise their local profile more” by acting like “glorified local councillors”, said one MP involved. They have been urged by the party machine to mail out hyperlocal, single-issue leaflets, engage more with local press and attend a higher number of constituency events.

Several MPs reported that a thin legislative agenda and party chiefs’ zeal to encourage MPs to canvass for four upcoming by-elections had reduced the pressure to be present at Westminster.

Some are stepping up campaign activities on weekdays when they would previously have been scrutinising and voting on legislation in parliament.

One Tory MP defending a marginal insisted that a recalibration of how they split their time was “not unusual at this stage in the electoral cycle”.

The backbencher added that a significant portion of the government’s most important legislation, including on levelling up, online safety and so-called illegal migration, is currently “tied up in the House of Lords”, affording more room for Conservative MPs to skip the Commons.

While government officials deny that there is a slim legislative programme, another Tory backbencher said: “There’s nothing much on the agenda. We finished at 4.30pm one day last week. MPs are saying, what’s the point of coming down to Westminster if we’re not doing anything? There’s the sense of managed decline.”

The trend has not gone unnoticed by opposition parties. One senior Labour MP said: “When you look at the number of Tories turning up to vote it’s often only 280, 290 or 270, as if they’ve given up on this parliament. You have to ask the question, where on earth are they?”

A Conservative official responded that only a handful of slips were granted on any given day and many absences were due to ministers being away on government business, and backbench MPs conducting local or overseas visits.

Some MPs whose constituencies do not fall within CCHQ’s 80/20 criteria have also demanded special help, but have had little success.

“You can’t just keep expanding the marginal seats list, or it becomes completely meaningless,” said one Tory MP, who added that they believed the party had “identified the correct seats that will be critical to the general election”.

Conservative insiders insist there is still a “narrow path” to victory at the election and rebut Luntz’s analysis. They say prime minister Rishi Sunak’s leadership is restoring confidence in the party, with 5,000 new volunteers having signed up since he took the helm. 

Donations received between January and March this year totalled more than £12mn, more than double the previous quarter.

Additional reporting by Jim Pickard