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Economy Week Ahead: Housing, Consumers, Inflation

Data on existing-home and new-home sales in the U.S. are due this week.



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Michael Conroy/Associated Press

U.S. consumer spending and inflation data highlight this week’s economic calendar.

Wednesday

U.S. existing-home sales are forecast to increase for the third consecutive month in November despite low inventories and record prices. Pandemic-driven factors such as a desire for more space and the emergence of remote work, low mortgage rates, strong interest from investors and a big demographic push from millennials have combined to create the hottest housing market since 2006.

Thursday

U.S. jobless claims in recent weeks have fallen to the lowest levels in more than half a century, reflecting an unusually tight labor market. Economists expect first-time applications for unemployment benefits, a proxy for layoffs, to remain exceptionally low in the week ended Dec. 18 as employers try to hold on to workers.

U.S. consumer spending likely increased in November, boosted by job gains and rising wages, high levels of household saving, and inflationary pressures that are causing prices to advance at the fastest pace in almost 40 years.

The Commerce Department’s consumer spending report also includes a key measure of inflation, the personal-consumption expenditures price index. Economists estimate that core inflation, which excludes often volatile food and energy prices, rose at the fastest annual pace in almost four decades in November. Hot inflation is one reason the Federal Reserve is winding down pandemic-era stimulus and setting the stage for higher interest rates next year.

U.S. new-home sales are expected to climb in November. The market for newly built homes is experiencing the same broad forces as existing homes, while builders have been held back from meeting demand by rising costs for supplies, shortages of materials and trouble attracting enough workers.

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Appeared in the December 20, 2021, print edition as ‘Economic Calendar.’

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