Donald Trump’s mounting legal jeopardy

The charge sheet against Donald Trump keeps getting longer. After the 34-count indictment against him in late March for falsifying records of hush money paid to a porn star, we can now add his 37-count indictment for hiding classified documents. Those will be read out in a Miami court on Tuesday. In August, Trump is likely to be indicted for attempting to overturn the results of the presidential election in Georgia. At any point, he could also be charged for his role in the January 6 2021 mob attack of Capitol Hill.

Each one of these cases breaks precedent. Never has a former US president been charged with a crime, let alone one who is seeking to become president again. The special counsel, Jack Smith, was at pains to underline that Trump, like any other US citizen, is innocent until proven guilty. But the volume and range of charges against him suggest he faces high odds of an eventual prison sentence. The latest allegations alone entail up to 400 years in prison time. Even a convicted Trump could continue to run for office from jail.

The US system thus faces two grave tests: the judiciary will be put under acute stress to show it is working fairly and methodically. Though the rule of law applies equally to every citizen, it is critical that treatment of America’s most powerful alleged criminal is both fair and seen to be fair. That works both ways. So far, America’s judiciary has held up well.

However, the fact that the Florida judge assigned to the case is Aileen Cannon, a Trump appointee, is a windfall for Trump. As the presiding judge, Cannon bent over backwards last year to slow the legal process following the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago last summer. No one can force Cannon to recuse herself from the case, which is a matter for her conscience. She has the scope to delay trial until after the 2024 presidential election. Either way, Trump’s mounting docket of upcoming trials is likely to be subject to many stops and starts. Justice could well be repeatedly delayed.

The even graver test is political. Far from harming Trump’s popular standing, each indictment appears to solidify his grip over the Republican base. Most of Trump’s rivals for the nomination, including Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis, have echoed Trump’s claims of a corrupt judiciary doing President Joe Biden’s bidding.

Though Biden has been scrupulous about leaving his Department of Justice to its own devices, Trump’s conspiracy theories are being amplified by most of the Republican establishment. They are playing with fire. Support for the rule of law and the FBI’s mission used to be bedrock principles of the Republican party. Now it is openly agitating against both.

On Saturday, Trump said 2024 would be a “final battle” between the forces of good and evil. If he were elected, there would be “retribution”. He has every incentive to turn the 2024 election into an existential showdown. Should Trump win next year, he would surely pardon himself.

The US republic is thus entering a period of even greater risk than during the failed attempt to overturn the 2020 election. Should Trump be the Republican nominee, which now looks probable, Americans will essentially be voting in a plebiscite on the rule of law next year. According to Trump, the deep state is out to get the average American and he is the only one standing in its way. Millions of Americans believe this self-serving nonsense. The judiciary must do its job without fear or favour. The verdict of the political system will be more important still. The only thing more powerful than the rule of law is the will of America’s people. Trump’s fate ultimately rests on that.