Discount retailers, holiday travel operators cash in as cost of living bites

Analysts and economists have been forecasting the spending slowdown for more than a year now, with many stock watchers already baking this pessimism into their models.

Loading

And while there is no doubt that conditions are softening overall, recent spending data suggests there could be some winners despite the slowdown.

Australian consumers have increasingly been making trade-offs in their spending to make their dollars stretch further, and to be able to afford the parts of their budgets that they can’t bear to axe.

The phenomenon of “trading down”, or moving from one product to a lower-cost alternative, could open growth opportunities for a range of retailers, including discount retailers such as Aldi and Kmart.

UBS analysts said this month that Aldi was most likely to win market share in the current trading environment. The investment bank said last month that it also preferred brands that “are lower priced and able to win from a trade-down”, such as Wesfarmers’ discount department store Kmart.

“The consumer is reducing spending in aggregate and when they do spend they are: (1) trading down by price point in apparel and general merchandise,” the UBS team said.

Loading

Kogan.com founder Ruslan Kogan said this week that there were growth opportunities as consumers revisited their budgets, with the online retail platform seeing an improved performance in its phone plans business and its loyalty subscription program, Kogan First, even as overall sales slow.

“In this environment, where people are looking to save more money, that [program] has been very popular,” he said.

There’s also some evidence that older consumers are helping drive sales in areas such as fashion, even though clothing and apparel sales have weakened since the country emerged from lockdowns.

CommBank iQ cost of living data for the first months of this calendar year showed that consumers aged over 55 have increased their spending beyond inflation compared with 2022, and shoppers aged over 35 increased their clothing spending by 3.1 per cent in the first quarter of the year, as younger shoppers pulled back.

Things are also rosier at the luxury end of the retail market, where brands such as Chanel have had rapid growth as the world emerged from pandemic lockdowns.

Shares in ASX-listed designer brands platform Cettire have surged by more than 140 per cent year-to-date as the business reports that revenue momentum is growing rather than slowing.

Meanwhile, this month’s trading update from travel operator Flight Centre suggests that while households are working harder to balance budgets, discretionary dollars are still being spent when it comes to holidays.

Loading

Shares in the travel agent have advanced by more than 20 per cent this month and the business expects 2023 earnings will be better than previously forecast, coming in at between $295 million and $305 million.

Flight Centre managing director Graham “Skroo” Turner said in the trading update that the year-on-year growth in outbound travel suggested consumers are putting holidays first.

“Looking ahead, our expectations are that leisure travellers will continue to prioritise holidays
and experiences over other areas of discretionary spending,” he said.