DeSantis benefits from ‘Trump fatigue’ ahead of possible 2024 face-off

Two weeks ago, Ron DeSantis accused the congressional committee probing the January 6 attack on the US Capitol of beating a “dead horse”.

“Why weren’t they doing hearings about more energy? Why aren’t they doing hearings about inflation?” the Florida governor complained.

Yet the stream of damaging allegations against former president Donald Trump that has been documented by the panel may well give a boost to DeSantis — and other would-be Republican contenders — as they consider a White House run in 2024.

Although Trump remains the de facto leader of the Republican party, with a huge financial war chest and enduring grassroots support, there is a strong push among the party’s top backers in business and finance to put forth a different candidate in the next presidential election. There are also signs that voters may follow suit.

“There’s an element of Trump fatigue within the conservative movement: among conservatives who didn’t love Trump to begin with, and then learned to love him, and now are looking for somebody new,” said John Feehery, a Republican strategist at EFB Advocacy.

“I think who they’re landing on, by and large, is Ron DeSantis.”

Eric Levine, a litigation and bankruptcy attorney in New York and a frequent donor to Republicans in Congress, said he was “sensing a movement away from Trump, and people looking for a place to go because they want to win”.

“It’s gone beyond him just being a jerk, people are horrified by his conduct after the election.”

Trump has repeatedly hinted at a possible run for a second term in 2024 but has so far not made a definitive announcement.

“I know he wants to, and he’s planning to,” Kellyanne Conway, his former White House communications director, said this week on a podcast hosted by David Axelrod, Barack Obama’s former political strategist.

“He feels like he has unfinished business.”

DeSantis, who has served as Florida governor since 2019, has stood out as the most viable alternative to Trump. He has attracted Republican support by embracing the approach and policies of the former president but without the same level of chaos. His rivals include Mike Pence, the former vice-president; Mike Pompeo, the former secretary of state; and Nikki Haley, the former ambassador to the UN; as well as lawmakers Tim Scott of South Carolina and Tom Cotton of Arkansas.

“I think people are getting a little bit bolder. I think DeSantis is getting a little bit bolder,” said Feehery at EFB Advocacy.

“Trump is still king of the hill, and someone’s going to have to have the courage to take him on. And it looks like now the guy who has the most courage, who’s got a real chance, is DeSantis.”

A University of New Hampshire survey released last month, showed DeSantis ahead of Trump by two percentage points in a putative presidential matchup in the New England state, which typically holds the first primary contest. It was particularly encouraging for the Florida governor because in October, Trump held a 25 percentage point advantage over DeSantis in New Hampshire.

A Yahoo News/YouGov survey this week found Trump leading DeSantis in a head-to-head national contest for the Republican nomination by a 44 per cent to 33 per cent margin. Among registered voters that gap was smaller, 45 per cent to 36 per cent.

According to an analysis of swing voters by Impact Social, a social media analysis firm, DeSantis has benefited from an increase in positive sentiment in online posts in recent weeks, while it has moved downwards for Trump.

“To these people Trump is guilty of something, be that insurrection, obstruction of justice and/or corruption and should be indicted as a matter of urgency,” according to the analysis, which was conducted between June 15 and 29.

“This is not just liberals seeking vengeance. A fair number of these posts are written by exasperated right-leaning voters who see January 6 as an embarrassment and want the matter to come to an end.”

DeSantis has still not declared whether he will run for president, which could put him directly in Trump’s crosshairs. But his supporters have clearly started to lay the groundwork for a campaign in case he jumps in.

In May, Lilian Rodriguez-Baz, a Miami lawyer, and Ed Rollins, the prominent GOP strategist, created a new political action committee called Ready for Ron to promote him. They were buoyed when Elon Musk, the founder of Tesla, said on Twitter last month that he was leaning towards supporting DeSantis in 2024.

“We’re very excited to see more and more business owners and more and more big names backing DeSantis,” said Rodriguez-Baz, who is the PAC’s chief legal counsel.

“The point and goal of our PAC is to build up this momentum so that he’s persuaded to run when he sees how many people want him to actually be the president in 2024,” she said.

Even as a potential battle looms, DeSantis and Trump have been reluctant to attack each other head on, though there have been signs of friction. The Florida governor has declined to seek Trump’s endorsement for his re-election campaign, for instance.

Rodriguez-Baz said there are just “rumblings and whispers” about Trump’s possible bid for a second term, while DeSantis had “very well positioned himself as somebody who’s equipped and able to carry forward Trump’s America-first agenda”. 

Among some Republicans in Florida, support for a DeSantis run is indeed growing.

Armando Ibarra, president of the Miami Young Republicans, endorsed him last week, saying “people really like [him]” because he embodied “the future” — and because he was willing to take on big business, including in his clash with Disney over gay rights.

“A lot of people see there have been imbalances and excesses in the way that some of these companies operate. He is challenging them on data privacy, on CRT and on the Big Tech stuff. He is challenging the cultural monopolies,” said Ibarra.

But some legislators in the state capital of Tallahassee are less enthused, believing DeSantis has spent more time nourishing his presidential ambitions than actually governing.

“He gets on a plane at 9.30 to do a press conference at 10. He will do a Q&A where he will attack [president Joe] Biden. Then he gets back on a plane, does a couple of hours’ work and then does his best to get on Fox News in the evening,” said one lawmaker.

There are other questions hanging over DeSantis apart from whether he can beat Trump and other rivals among Republican primary voters. Some ask whether he has distanced himself sufficiently from the former president, or whether he is seen as too extreme.

In New York, attorney Levine — who said he will turn his attention to the presidential election in the start of 2023 after the midterm elections are over — said Republicans would be “better served” by a candidate who can win over suburban voters rather than its staunchly pro-Trump base.

While DeSantis would not be his “first choice”, he would still support him enthusiastically and believes he is gaining momentum.

“Is the support for DeSantis real? I think it is,” Levine said.