Biden, Obama and Trump target swing state of Pennsylvania ahead of midterms

Three sitting and former presidents will descend on Pennsylvania on Saturday, as Democrats and Republicans lean on political heavyweights to sell their messages days before an election that will determine the shape of Congress for the next two years.

Opinion polls suggest Republicans are poised to regain control of the House of Representatives following Tuesday’s midterms. But the Senate is widely seen as up for grabs, with voters in a handful of key swing states, including Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada, likely to determine the outcome.

Former president Barack Obama, who has criss-crossed the country in the last week in support of Democratic Senate candidates, will share the stage in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia on Saturday with John Fetterman, Pennsylvania’s lieutenant-governor and Democratic candidate for the US Senate.

Obama and Fetterman will be joined in Philadelphia by president Joe Biden, who has largely shied away from the campaign trail amid persistently low approval ratings, but has increased his public appearances in recent days.

Meanwhile, on Saturday night, the man Biden defeated — Donald Trump — will hold a rally in Latrobe, Pennsylvania, a small city about 40 miles east of Pittsburgh. Trump, who has embarked on his own cross-country tour with stops in Iowa, Florida and Ohio, among other states, will appear in Latrobe with Fetterman’s opponent, Mehmet Oz, and the Republican candidate for governor in Pennsylvania, Doug Mastriano.

Pennsylvania has long been seen as a pivotal swing state and a bellwether of the national mood. Biden defeated Trump there by a razor-thin margin of some 80,000 votes in 2020. Democrats have targeted the US Senate seat since the incumbent Republican, Pat Toomey, announced he would retire at the end of his six-year term.

Over the summer, opinion polls gave Fetterman — the brash former mayor of Braddock, Pennsylvania — a double-digit lead over Oz, the cardiothoracic surgeon turned television personality who secured his party’s nomination earlier this year following Trump’s endorsement.

But Fetterman suffered a stroke in May, and his absence from the campaign trail, coupled with a well-resourced Oz campaign focused heavily on issues such as crime and inflation, allowed the former TV host to close the gap. The latest Real Clear Politics polling average gives Oz a 0.1 point lead over Fetterman, within the margin of error.

Democratic hopes of picking up the seat were shaken further last week after a televised debate in which Fetterman struggled to speak clearly and at times appeared to find it difficult to respond to questions.

But the president’s party remains hopeful that Fetterman can edge out Oz on polling day, in part thanks to tailwinds from Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate for governor in Pennsylvania, who is polling comfortably ahead of Mastriano.

The Republican won his party’s nomination with Trump’s endorsement, but Mastriano’s campaign has struggled to raise money and voters appear to be rejecting his hardline candidacy, which centres on a refusal to accept the results of the 2020 presidential election.

The Fetterman campaign also received a boost this week after Oprah Winfrey, the popular television personality who launched Oz’s entertainment career, endorsed their candidate, saying: “If I lived in Pennsylvania, I would have already cast my vote for John Fetterman for many reasons.”

Next week’s midterms will have major implications for both political parties, not only on Capitol Hill, but also as politicians cast their eyes to the 2024 presidential elections. Trump is expected to announce his third White House bid shortly after the midterms, in a move that would fire the starting gun on the next election cycle and raise fresh questions over whether any fellow Republicans would challenge his candidacy.

Biden has not formally said he will seek re-election in two years’ time. But Anita Dunn, a senior adviser to the president, said at an event in Washington earlier this week that initial conversations about a future campaign were under way.