Australian Open 2022: How can Rafael Nadal beat Daniil Medvedev to win record 21st major in Melbourne?

You must be thinking why isn’t it the other way round? Rafael Nadal was the only former Australian Open winner in the men’s singles draw, having won way back in 2009, and is a 20-time Grand Slam winner, aiming for a historic 21, which stands atop the very many records that beckon that top-seeded Spaniard if he manages to win on Sunday night at the iconic Rod Laver Arena. On the contrary, Daniil Medvedev has only one major to his name (US Open 2021), and will be playing only his fourth major final, second in Melbourne. But the 2022 Australian Open final has come at a difficult point in Nadal’s career.

Even without Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer in the main draw, Nadal wasn’t the favourite to even get past his quarter, let alone win the title. And it’s not just because of Medvedev’s impressive form ahead of the tournament, but more because of his foot injury which he incurred back in May 2021. Following two back-to-back five-setter victories – against Adrian Mannarino and Denis Shapovalov – and an incredible four-set win over Matteo Berrettini in the semis, the 35-year-old had repeatedly mentioned that two months before the start of the tournament, he wasn’t even sure if he would have ever returned to the court. Shortly after his recovery, Nadal was down with Covid-19 in December which had left him bed-ridden for a few days.

Despite the odds, and beating them all, Nadal has given himself a chance to go after that elusive 21, which was twice tried before by two different players. Federer was stopped by Djokovic in 2020 Wimbledon while the latter fell short in the 2021 US Open final against Medvedev, the man Nadal will be up against.

So the question, how can Nadal beat Medvedev?

Taking care of the second serve

In his US Open 2019 match, Nadal’s win percentage on the second serve was 65. It was 61 in the 2019 ATP Tour Finals tie. Nadal won both the matches. But it had dropped to 40 in the 2020 ATP Tour Finals match which Nadal had lost. In the ongoing tournament, Nadal has won 58 per cent of his points on the second serve (121/210), which is the highest among all quarterfinalists. Medvedev, on the other hand, has won 98 return points on the second serve, which is the second on the list, which is dominated by Nadal (108).

Slicing it away 

The slice backhand has been a key weapon for Nadal in his three wins against Medvedev, which tends to slow the pace of the game, making life difficult for the lanky Russian who loves the pace on his racquet and hits one of the flattest groundstrokes on the tour.

In the quarterfinal match against Diego Schwartzman in US Open 2019, the lefty’s slice percentage was only 16, but raised it to a whopping 41 in the match against Medvedev. Later that year, Nadal had used the same weapon to stage an incredible comeback from 1-5 down in the third set to defeat Medvedev. While he had sliced 23 per cent of the times, according to a stat provided by the ATP, in the first two sets, but did it 16 per cent of the times in the deciding set.

Nadal had in fact increased the amount to 31 per cent in their 2020 ATP Tour Finals tie, which worked in his favour for large part of the match, leading to the point where he had the chance to serve for the win. In the final set of the semi-final game, the percentage stood at 37, yet Medvedev had managed to counter it before claiming his maiden win against the Spaniard in ATP tour.

Serve and volley 

It was a strategy that Nadal had used immensely during the deciding set of the US Open 2019 final, pulling it off seven times, which was two more than he had done in the five matches before the final, and won six of them. Overall, he did it 20 times and win 17 of those points. He had also won 77.2 per cent (51/66) of his net points in that game. One of the major reasons behind Nadal rushing towards the court more often in that game was owing to his dip in the baseline points won – 47 % – the only game in that fortnight when it had dipped below 50.

Well, Medvedev had gone about with the same strategy as well. Despite a strong baseline player like Nadal, his number had dipped to 39% in the final, and hence looked to approach the net more often – winning 68% of his net points and 76% on serve and volley.

In the build-up to his semi-final match, Nadal had served and volleyed 13 times, winning 11 of them and has also won 78.68% (96/122) of his points at the nets in the entire tournament. Medvedev served and volleyed only twice, winning both and has won 65.23% (106/162) of his points at the nets in the entire tournament. Both have also been strong on the baseline, winning 55% and 51% on the points respectively before their semi-final games.

Keeping the rallies short

The aforementioned tactic indicates that Nadal would fancy shorter rallies against Medvedev. Both have the exact win percentage (53) on 0-4 rallies although the Spaniard leads 61.46 to Medvedev’s 54.6 in rallies comprising 5-8 shots. Cutting short of the long rallies and rushing to the net more often will give Nadal the chance to create angles. In fact, in Medvedev’s only win against the 35-year-old, he had shortened the rallies, was more aggressive in his approach and was willing to move up to the baseline more often after returning serve.