ASX set to slide as economic reports worry Wall Street

Investors are getting a trio of reports from the government on the US jobs market this week. Thursday is the weekly report on the number of workers applying for unemployment benefits. And Friday the more important monthly update on how many jobs were created across the country will be released.

Some relatively encouraging data on inflation came in from other parts of the world on Tuesday.

In Europe, a survey by the European Central Bank showed expectations for inflation in the coming year is falling among consumers in the region. That’s key because lower expectations can help the economy avoid a vicious cycle where inflation keeps building momentum.

A separate report also showed inflation at the wholesale level in the region slowed by more in February than economists expected.

In Australia, the country’s central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 3.60 per cent. It said it wanted some time to see how its past hikes to interest rates are working through the system.

While Australia’s economy is much smaller than that of the US or European Union, its central bank and that of New Zealand tend to “set the tone for monetary policy cycles,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya of Swissquote.com said in a commentary.

In South Korea, the consumer inflation rate fell more than expected in March. That has raised expectations that the central bank will keep its key interest rate steady when it meets next week.

In the US, traders flipped bets back toward the Fed holding steady on rates at its meeting next month. A day earlier, a slight majority was betting on another increase in rates. That helped yields in the bond market to fall.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 3.35 per cent from 3.42 per cent late Monday. It helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans. The two-year Treasury, which moves more on expectations for the Fed, dropped to 3.87 per cent from 3.97 per cent.

Longer term, there seems to be more confidence on Wall Street that the Fed will have to cut rates later this year.

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That has helped to buoy stocks, particularly technology and other high-growth companies, because rate cuts tend to act like steroids for markets. But the Fed has been consistent in saying it does not expect any rate cuts this year.

Critics also are sceptical, saying inflation still remains too high for the Fed’s liking. And any cut in rates would likely come only if the economy were in much weaker shape, something that could torpedo stocks too.

Tuesday’s weaker-than-expected readings on the economy follow a report on Monday that showed US manufacturing continues to shrink faster than economists forecast.

Given such weakness, this is “not the time to chase growth,” suggested Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management.

On Wall Street, shares of Virgin Orbit plunged 26.6 per cent to 15 cents after the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. It’s been contending with the fallout of a failed mission this year and increasing difficulty in raising funding for future missions

Oil prices gave back some of their big gains from a day before, when they shot higher on worries about tighter supplies. Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries said over they weekend they would cut production beginning in May.

Benchmark US crude slipped 0.1 per cent to $US80.36 per barrel, to lessen pressure a bit on inflation. Brent crude, the international standard, fell 0.4 per cent to $US84.61 per barrel.

AP