Lula struggles with rightwing Congress as Brazil’s ‘broad coalition’ unravels

Brazil’s rightwing Congress is threatening to frustrate key pillars of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s political agenda after accusing the leftwing leader of spending too little time on the country’s deteriorating domestic politics and too much on foreign policy.

The 77-year-old, elected last year on sweeping pledges to kick-start the economy, eradicate poverty and protect the environment, is facing the reality of governing with an opposition-dominated legislature, which has handed him a series of defeats.

The acrimonious clashes with Congress, which does not support much of Lula’s agenda, have the potential to cast a pall over the president’s third non-consecutive term. According to a survey released earlier this month by pollster Ipec, Lula’s popularity has slipped from 41 per cent in March to 37 per cent.

“The elected Congress is not a progressive leftist Congress,” said Arthur Lira, speaker of the lower house, in a message to Lula. “It is a reformist, [economically] liberal, conservative Congress. The government has been counting on the goodwill of [parliament] . . . but this is running out.”

The comments last week followed parliamentary votes to strip key powers from the environment ministry and the newly created ministry of indigenous people as part of an administrative reconfiguration of Lula’s cabinet. In a separate vote, the lower house of parliament also voted in favour of a bill that would limit indigenous people’s claims to land.

Both decisions were seen as a direct rebuke of Lula, whose key priorities include protecting the environment and Brazil’s native peoples. Congress has also indicated it would oppose any attempts to roll back recent economic reforms, including pro-business regulatory frameworks, privatisations and labour laws.

“Lula has been suffering defeats because the legislature has more power,” said Eduardo Grin, a politics professor of Getúlio Vargas Foundation. “Congress reflects the increasing conservatism in society . . . [so] it feels much more supported by society to block the president’s agenda.”

Since taking office for his third term in January, Lula has focused much of his time on foreign affairs, pitching plans for a “peace club” to end the Ukraine war and re-establishing ties with the regime led by Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.

He drew the ire of many lawmakers on Brazil’s right by recently hosting Maduro in Brasília and offering his support to the autocratic leader.

An editorial in the right-leaning Estadão newspaper said the move “destroyed once and for all the very fragile ‘broad coalition’ that elected Lula”, adding that the move was “incomprehensible given [Lula’s] pressing need to improve his ability to govern”.

Alessandro Vieira, a centre-right senator, told the Financial Times that Lula was facing a “difficult balance” between domestic and foreign policy. “He is going through a process of adaptation to the reality of Congress, which is very different from that of his first administrations [from 2003-2010].”

The success of Lula’s domestic agenda will hinge closely on how he manages the relationship with Lira, a centre-right politician who represents a powerful parliamentary bloc known as the Centrão, analysts said.

Unwedded to ideology, the Centrão offers support to governments of any stripe in exchange for plum political posts and the resources to support its electoral machine in home constituencies.

The bloc expanded its influence during the previous administration led by far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, which — embattled by scandals — handed over more power and influence to Lira.

“Lira is today effectively a kind of prime minister,” said Fernando Schüler, a political analyst at Insper, a university in São Paulo. “Lula has strength, but this strength is conditioned on the preservation of the relationship with Lira.”

Lira has shown support for certain planks of the government’s economic agenda, including a new fiscal framework to ease constraints on spending and a proposed overhaul of the country’s byzantine tax system.

But he has played hardball on issues close to Lula’s leftwing base, including protection of the environment and minorities and attempts to roll back the privatisation of the water and sewage sector. 

“I am committed to regaining Brazil’s world leadership in mitigating climate change and controlling deforestation,” Lula said after the Congress setbacks. “We once again have an active and proud foreign policy, which makes us protagonists of the great discussions involving climate change.”

Of the lower house’s 513 members, Lula’s bloc only amounts to about 220 lawmakers. His position is marginally better in the Senate. Although he can count reliably only on 14 of the chamber’s 81 members, he has the support of Senate leader Rodrigo Pacheco.

Parliament’s new confidence has been evidenced by its demands for bigger rewards and concessions for passing legislation than the ministerial posts that are traditionally offered to Centrão parties.

At the beginning of his government, Lula handed three ministerial positions to the rightwing União Brasil party. Yet in the recent vote to limit indigenous territories, only two of its 59 lawmakers voted alongside the government.

The other carrot typically employed by presidents to cajole Congress are discretionary budgetary stipends, which lawmakers use to invest in their constituencies and bolster their political stature

But the price of such incentives has risen for Lula as opposition lawmakers have restricted his room for manoeuvre.

As Congress stripped power from his ministries this month, Lula released R$1.7bn ($350mn) in such stipends to try limit the damage — the largest single-day release of funds of this type under this government.