Tucker Carlson wants to get back on TV soon. But there is one big obstacle

So far, Carlson has said nothing publicly since last week, except for a short video statement he posted on Twitter. Through a representative, he declined to comment for this article.But some of his allies in conservative media have — without offering proof — blamed Fox News for trying to tarnish the reputation of its former star host, saying the network is looking to hamstring his career prospects.

“Fox News teaming up with Media Matters to smear Tucker Carlson is one of the slimiest betrayals I’ve ever seen,” Matt Walsh, a podcaster for the conservative Daily Wire, wrote this week.

Others found the accusations a bit of a stretch. “The idea that Fox is (somehow) colluding with its mortal enemy,” wrote Mike Davis, a conservative legal strategist, “to trash Tucker is truly a tin-foil hat, utterly stupid conspiracy theory.”

A spokesperson for Fox News said the network had no further comment beyond its statement last week announcing that the network and Carlson had parted ways.

Getting back to work before his contract expires is not a certainty for Carlson. Like many other television hosts, he has a contract that contains language — known in the media industry as “pay or play” — that allows networks to keep their biggest stars from working for their rivals as long as they are under contract, according to a person with knowledge of his deal.

Anchors like Carlson usually also have terms in their contracts that prevent them from making unsanctioned media appearances, said Andy Lee, an entertainment lawyer with Foley & Lardner, which is not involved in the negotiations. If Carlson’s contract has those provisions, they could hamper any efforts he might make to play a role as a commentator in the 2024 presidential election.

For Carlson, there’s more at stake than a paycheque, Lee said. Many TV personalities become less relevant the longer they stay off the air, hurting their earning potential.

“There are circumstances where pay-or-play provisions can be challenged, but networks and studios certainly view them as being relatively ironclad,” Lee said.

It is possible that Fox News would continue to pay out Carlson’s contract in full to keep him away as a competitor. Or Carlson and Fox News could work out a separation agreement that allowed Carlson to get back on the air before his contract expires. That could require him to forfeit millions of dollars he is owed by the network.

Yet, it may be in the interests of both parties to resolve the situation amicably. Carlson would be able to build a business outside Fox News. And Fox News would be spared the threat of what a disgruntled Carlson might do to drive a wedge between his loyal followers and the network. Already, the ratings for Carlson’s old 8 pm Eastern time slot have dropped significantly. And some of his fans have raised the possibility of a boycott of the network.

Carlson has turned to lawyer Bryan Freedman to help negotiate a settlement. Freedman has handled departure deals for numerous TV stars and is well known for his aggressive negotiation tactics.

An agreement that allows Carlson to appear on a rival news network such as Newsmax would be a considerable concession from Fox News. In any agreement, Fox News would most likely insist on prohibiting Carlson from joining a cable news competitor, said a person familiar with how negotiations with big Fox News stars have unfolded in the past.

Any number of opportunities are available to Carlson if he and Fox News agree to terms releasing him from his contract early. Some former Fox News hosts, such as Megyn Kelly, have taken an entrepreneurial path, starting their own companies to produce radio shows and podcasts. Others, such as former The O’Reilly Factor host Bill O’Reilly, have appeared on smaller networks such as The First TV, an upstart founded by Red Seat Ventures.

News of Carlson’s breakup with Fox News immediately stoked speculation in right-wing media circles about his next steps. Carlson’s nightly perch on Fox News has made him a power broker and an opinion-shaper in the Republican Party. That would make him a serious get for the conservative media companies that have pitched themselves as alternatives to the mainstream press — and to Fox News, the right-wing media behemoth.

An associate of Carlson’s said Rumble, a right-wing media company based in Canada, would be a likely suitor. The Daily Wire, a media start-up co-founded by conservative commenter Ben Shapiro, is interested in exploring a deal with Carlson, as are conservative TV networks Newsmax and One America News, according to three people familiar with their interest.

Fox News is rotating hosts in Carlson’s old time slot under the Fox News Tonight banner for the foreseeable future. So far, hosts have included Brian Kilmeade, who usually co-hosts the network’s popular Fox and Friends morning show, and Lawrence Jones, another host at the network.

Fox News, longtime king of cable news ratings, has suffered an audience dip in Carlson’s hour after his abrupt departure. Fox News’ audience in that time slot on some nights fell behind both CNN’s and MSNBC’s over the last week among adults ages 25-54, a rare loss in that demographic, which is coveted by advertisers.

For Carlson, there’s more at stake than a pay cheque, Lee said. Many TV personalities become less relevant the longer they stay off the air, hurting their earning potential.

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“It’s not always just a question of money, because being off the air for an extended period can have an adverse effect on a career,” Lee said.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

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