‘Avatar’ won’t win Best Picture, but races are tightening for Oscar

Oh, it’ll probably be nominated but, thanks to the Golden Globe Awards and the Screen Actors Guild nominations, it’s not a strong contender. It won nothing in the former and only got a “stunt ensemble” nomination in the latter. That bodes ill for director James Cameron’s years-in-the-making project. Even worse? He didn’t get a Directors Guild nod, a harbinger for Oscar victory.

So, with “Avatar” as a bridesmaid, who stands the best chance for winning the Oscar?

“Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “The Fabelmans” and “The Banshees of Inisherin.” They all won Globes and figured heavily in the Screen Actors Guild contest.

Most likely, the 10 spots will include films like “Elvis,” “Tar,” “Babylon,” “Women Talking” and a highly acclaimed foreign language film (like “RRR”) or – a real surprise – animated film “Pinocchio.”

Michelle Yeoh (“Everything”) and Cate Blanchett (“Tar”) won Golden Globes for Best Actress and will definitely be the two to beat at the Oscars. Viola Davis has a shot with “The Woman King” but the one who is now on the bubble is Michelle Williams from “The Fabelmans.” She wasn’t nominated for a SAG award, which makes it difficult to lock an Oscar nomination. Because actors comprise the largest contingent of the Motion Picture Academy, they can control the narrative. If they don’t like you in their own awards, it’s extremely difficult to get into the Top Five in the Oscar race..

SAG nominated Danielle Deadwyler (“Till”) and Ana de Armas (“Blonde”), which gives them a shot at the other spots.

Most likely: Yeoh, Blanchett, Davis, Deadwyler and then? It’s either a surprise or Williams slips in. Also possible? Oscar fave Olivia Colman (“Empire of Light”).

In the Best Actor race, Globes winners Austin Butler (“Elvis”) and Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) are the leaders. But don’t discount Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”) and Bill Nighy (“Living”), who have been mentioned all year long. The fifth spot? SAG put its money on Adam Sandler (“Hustle”). Also possible? Hugh Jackman (“The Son”), Jeremy Pope (“Insurrection”), Diego Calva (“Babylon”).

In the Supporting Actress race, Angela Bassett took a giant step to the head of the pack for her Golden Globes win for “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.” She gave a great speech (paying honor to the late Chadwick Boseman) and would give Marvel its first win. That’s a lot to unpack. Plus, there’s disagreement about the “large cast” films like “Women Talking,” “Everything Everywhere” and “She Said.” The three could have several nominees in the category. SAG snubbed “Women Talking” and “She Said.” Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu got SAG nominations for “Everything”; Kerry Condon (“Banshees”) and Hong Chau (“The Whale”) factored in as well.

So who’s there? Bassett, Condon, Curtis and probably Jessie Buckley (“Women Talking”), Carey Mulligan (“She Said”) or Hsu. Way outside chance: Janelle Monae, “Knives Out: The Glass Onion.”

The Supporting Actor contest is even more contentious. Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere”) is a lock (and probably the winner), but “The Fabelmans” could offer up Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch, “Banshees” has strong nominees in Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan and “Women Talking” could land Ben Whishaw a shot and “The Good Nurse” could get one for Eddie Redmayne.

Who’s in? Quan, Gleeson and Keoghan. Then, we’re thinking Hirsch and Redmayne. Dano has a chance, too. But we’re still not ready for a definitive list.

With the Critics Choice Awards this weekend, the field could narrow even more.

The real contenders won’t be clear until Oscar announces its field Jan. 24.