Dollar jumps, euro dips before Fed minutes

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NEW YORK — The greenback jumped on

Tuesday before the Federal Reserve on Wednesday releases minutes

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from its December meeting, while the euro was dented by

moderating inflation data.

The U.S. central bank slowed its pace of interest rate hikes

to 50 basis points last month after delivering four consecutive

75-basis point hikes but stressed the need to hold rates in

restrictive territory to bring down inflation.

Investors will watch for signs of how concerned the Fed is

about persistent inflation and its thoughts on the labor market,

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though the meeting minutes may not be as market moving as

upcoming jobs and inflation data, said Bipan Rai, North American

head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

A still robust employment picture is viewed as giving the

Fed more room to keep raising rates as it battles to bring down

stubbornly high inflation. The highly anticipated December jobs

report is due on Friday, and consumer price data for last month

will be released on Jan. 12.

Fed funds futures traders are pricing for rate cuts this

year even as the Fed maintains a hawkish tone, with the fed

funds rate expected to peak at 4.98% in June, before falling

back to 4.57% by year-end.

The dollar was last up 0.82% against a basket of currencies

at 104.49, though Rai cautioned about reading too much

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into the move with liquidity relatively thin as investors

returned from holidays.

Data on Tuesday showed that U.S. construction spending

unexpectedly rebounded in November, lifted by gains in

nonresidential structures, but single-family homebuilding

continued to be hammered by higher mortgage rates.

The greenback may have gotten a boost from safety buying

after data earlier showed that China’s factory activity shrank

at a sharper pace in December as surging COVID-19 infections

disrupted production and weighed on demand.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars,

which are sensitive to Chinese growth, were both last down

around 0.90%.

The euro also fell 0.92% to $1.0567 after German

state inflation data showed that price pressures eased in

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December, indicating national inflation may also have slowed for

a second month due in part to the government’s one-off payment

of household energy bills.

Scotiabank noted that January is typically a strong month

for the U.S. currency.

“The strong start to the new calendar year for the USD is

very much in keeping with long- (and shorter-) term seasonal

trends which typically see the USD rally in January — its

strongest month of the year over the past 25 years or so,” Shaun

Osborne, chief FX strategist at Scotiabank, said in a report.

He added that recent weakness in the greenback was also

likely overdone for the short-term.

Meanwhile the yen was down slightly on the day at

130.77 after earlier hitting a six-month high of 129.51 against

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the U.S. currency.

The rally followed a Nikkei report on Saturday that the Bank

of Japan was considering raising its inflation forecasts in

January to show price growth close to its 2% target in fiscal

2023 and 2024.

Speculation that the BOJ was set to start shifting from its

ultra-loose policy flared in December when the central bank

widened the yield cap range on 10-year Japanese government

bonds.

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Currency bid prices at 3:00PM (2000 GMT)

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Previous Change

Session

Dollar index 104.4900 103.6600 +0.82% 0.966% +104.8600 +103.4600

Euro/Dollar $1.0567 $1.0665 -0.92% -1.38% +$1.0683 +$1.0520

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Dollar/Yen 130.7650 130.6000 +0.14% -0.25% +131.3950 +129.5100

Euro/Yen 138.18 139.45 -0.91% -1.51% +140.0100 +137.3900

Dollar/Swiss 0.9349 0.9258 +0.98% +1.11% +0.9398 +0.9231

Sterling/Dollar $1.1986 $1.2053 -0.56% -0.89% +$1.2084 +$1.1900

Dollar/Canadian 1.3665 1.3585 +0.61% +0.87% +1.3685 +1.3524

Aussie/Dollar $0.6736 $0.6797 -0.90% -1.18% +$0.6834 +$0.6689

Euro/Swiss 0.9877 0.9860 +0.17% -0.18% +0.9905 +0.9841

Euro/Sterling 0.8814 0.8850 -0.41% -0.34% +0.8862 +0.8783

NZ $0.6252 $0.6316 -0.89% -1.43% +$0.6362 +$0.6201

Dollar/Dollar

Dollar/Norway 10.0555 9.8700 +1.98% +2.56% +10.0880 +9.8545

Euro/Norway 10.6274 10.5074 +1.14% +1.27% +10.6458 +10.4591

Dollar/Sweden 10.5428 10.4597 -0.15% +1.29% +10.5843 +10.4398

Euro/Sweden 11.1408 11.1570 -0.15% -0.08% +11.1652 +11.1056

(Reporting by Karen Brettell;

Additional reporting by Samuel Indyk in London; Editing by Lisa

Shumaker)