Powell affirms Fed on track for March hike

“What we know so far is that commodity prices have moved up significantly, energy prices in particular. That is going to work its way through our U.S. economy,” in the form of higher inflation at least in the short term, Powell told the Senate Banking Committee. “In addition we could see risk sentiment decline so you could see lower investment. You could see people hold back on spending. It is hard to see what the effect on both supply and demand will be.”

Powell repeated his prepared remarks from Wednesday to a House of Representatives committee whose members also focused on the Russian invasion of neighboring Ukraine. The conflict has triggered broad financial and other sanctions against Russia.

Powell said that the Fed was watching the situation carefully, but that so far it did not change the central bank’s plans to raise interest rates beginning at its March meeting to try to control already-high U.S. inflation.

“It is appropriate for us to continue along the lines that we had in mind before the Ukraine invasion happened,” Powell said.

But lawmakers honed in on the new situation the Fed now faces, and the possibility that the central bank could be facing a more difficult scenario in which inflation is driven higher by the war while growth slows.

“I am a little bit worried that this war has changed the risk profile,” said Senator Pat Toomey, Republican of Pennsylvania.

“Both on the supply and demand side there is a lot of uncertainty,” Powell said, but also noted that the “strong financial shape” of households and businesses may help sustain spending.