Your Sunday Briefing: Why This Time Is Different

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(Bloomberg) — Hello, again.

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All ready for another week? Here’s something to help get you prepped.  

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The big  stat:  The US economic calendar gets a little busier this week, with data on durable goods, consumer confidence and home sales due. The big day to watch will be Friday, when the August personal income and spending report that includes the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge drops.  

The big Fed calendar: Fresh off another 75 basis point rate increase, Fed officials from  Loretta Mester to Charles Evans, Raphael Bostic (who spoke of a “relatively orderly” slowdown Sunday) and Lael Brainard will be making the rounds. Traders will be parsing their comments for clues as to whether policy makers are leaning toward a fourth blockbuster hike. 

The big interview: John Paulson, who made billions shorting mortgage securities at the start of the global financial crisis, tells Michael P. Regan that another correction in frothy home prices may be on the cards. This time though, banks are much better positioned and we’re not at risk of another meltdown in the financial system.  

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The big market thought: TINA used to be a mantra once held dear by equity traders. But with central banks showing no signs of slowing down their rate hikes, investors are gradually finding that there are actually a panoply of alternatives to stocks that offer low-risk returns. 

The big vote: Barring any surprises, Italy is on track to elect on Sunday its first far-right (and first female) prime minister since becoming a republic. If she wins, Georgia Meloni will have to contend with soaring energy prices and borrowing costs and tackle Europe’s highest debt levels. Here’s a handy guide to what the vote will mean for financial markets. 

The big earnings: With the Fed warning of more pain to come, companies are having to make tough decisions on how to navigate uncertainties around the pace and severity of a global economic slowdown. Nike and Bed Bath & Beyond are among the key names to watch out for this week.  

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The big opinion: No one would call the US, with its federal budget deficit of more than 3% of GDP — fiscally conservative. But it increasingly looks like the cleanest of the dirty shirts among major economies and that’s reflected in the greenback, writes Robert Burgess in Bloomberg Opinion.

ICYM our Big Take: Miami has famous for its nightclubs, beaches and Little Havana. And in a few years, it could also become a new US capital of finance and tech, if Ken Griffin has his way. Amanda L Gordon looks at how Citadel’s billionaire founder intends to reshape the Florida city .

And finally, sometimes it feels like you need to be a rocket scientist to trade modern markets successfully.  Well, George Patterson used to be one, before he became the chief investment officer of PGIM Quantitative Solutions. Listen to his conversation with the “ What Goes Up” podcast.    

Have a good week. See you on the other side.