Your Sunday Briefing: Powell and Jobs; Big Gatherings in Texas

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(Bloomberg) — Hello. Two key events this week kick off a crucial period for markets, so get ready for them with the Sunday Briefing.

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The big Fed speech: First up, Jerome Powell heads to Capitol Hill to present his semiannual Monetary Policy Report to lawmakers. He’s expected to echo his Federal Reserve colleagues in suggesting interest rates will go higher than anticipated if economic data continue to come in hot, a message that will likely prompt pushback from progressives and cheers from Republicans. 

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The big stat: Days later, the payrolls report is set to show a labor market that’s proved mostly impervious to the Fed’s massive interest-rate hikes, with job growth probably moderating last month after January’s blistering jump and the unemployment rate likely holding at a 53-year low.

The big market thought: With Fed officials offering hawkish views, one economist says there’s reason to expect more rate increases. But Princeton University’s Alan Blinder — who was vice chair of the Fed in the 1990s — doesn’t see the central bank hiking to 6%, as some in the market are predicting.  

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The big Texas getaway: On Monday, oil executives descend on Houston, which is hosting the annual CERAWeek energy conference. The mood at this year’s conference is likely to be buoyant, as a rebound in China demand puts $100 a barrel oil in view.  Despite the strong outlook, producers are playing the short game and turning over ever more cash to shareholders rather than invest in long-term projects.

From Houston, it’s only a short hop over to Austin for SXSW, the tech/music/film/comedy/wellness festival that runs from March 10-19 this year. 

The big Congress: Further afield, it’s a big week in China, where the annual National People’s Congress kicked off Sunday. The modest growth target of around 5% for 2023 suggests top leaders remain concerned about the country’s recovery. Among the other highlights: the government will boost defense spending at the fastest pace in four years and take aim at “unregulated” expansion in the property market. 

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ICYM our Big Take: This week’s NPC also marks the last time that Premier Li Keqiang will deliver his work report. The changing of the guard in Beijing will usher in a clutch of politicians better known for strong ties with President Xi Jinping than academic credentials or overseas exposure. That’s ratcheting up anxiety from Wall Street to Washington. Still, Tom Orlik and Tom Hancock argue that the new team may turn out to be better placed than their predecessors to push through painful reforms needed in China.  

And finally, what’s it like to watch Jim Cramer’s Mad Money every day? The Trillions podcast talks to Matt Tuttle of Tuttle Capital Management about his new ETF, which shorts stocks recommended by the polarizing host, and his concerns over the long-term impact of too much Cramer on his brain cells.  

Have a sane week. See you on the other side.