US offers carrots, threatens sticks with Russia over Ukraine

The officials also said there is no chance the U.S. will reduce its military presence or arsenal in Eastern Europe as Russia has demanded.

While those comments, made to reporters on condition of anonymity in a White House-organized telephone conference call, were the first to suggest a willingness to compromise on issues tangential to Ukraine, they were accompanied by threats for Russian inaction.

In the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, “we – in coordination with our allies and partners – would immediately impose severe and overwhelming costs on Russia’s economy, including its financial system and sectors deemed critical to the Kremlin,” another official said.

In addition to sanctions on energy and consumer goods, the U.S. and its allies are considering bans on the export to Russia of advanced electronic components, software and related technology that uses American equipment.

That would mean that Russia’s ability to obtain integrated circuits, and products containing integrated circuits, would be severely restricted, because of the global dominance of U.S. software, technology and equipment in this sector. The impact could extend to aircraft avionics, machine tools, smartphones, game consoles, tablets and televisions.

Such sanctions could also target critical Russian industry, including its defense and civil aviation sectors, which would hit Russia’s high-tech ambitions, whether in artificial intelligence or quantum computing.