The ANC ditches South Africa for Russia

South Africa’s apparent sale of arms to Russia has plummeted relations with our most important trading partners to its lowest point since the dawn of democracy.

The relations are balanced on a knife edge. If President Cyril Ramaphosa does not quickly and transparently dispel these allegations, it may tip over with dire consequences for all South Africans.

Ramaphosa had an ideal opportunity to respond during his parliamentary session on Thursday to echo the government’s February denial of any such shipments, but he failed to do so.

A few hours later, he announced a new commission of enquiry which would “look into” the matter.

It is an apparent effort to delay accountability. It may also suggest weapons were indeed shipped or that the president was unaware of such an action. I don’t know which scenario is worse.

The pro-Russia policy will cost this country dearly.

We can pretty much kiss our future participation in the US’s African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) initiative goodbye. Other countries may also follow a similar approach to limit the country’s access to markets.

The possibility of sanctions is also quickly becoming a reality. Yes, sanctions against a country that had the world at our feet three decades ago.

The obvious question is why the ANC would adopt such a policy if Russia offers South Africa virtually no commercial benefit.

Is it just a case of the ANC being totally out of its depth and unable to marry diplomatic policy with economic consequences? Or is it incompetence?

A more simplistic answer could be that the relationship is directed by money. A few months ago, the ANC was on the cusp of bankruptcy but has seemingly recovered to pay its bills. Could it be as simple as Russia financing the ANC or members of its leadership in return for loyalty?

Such a reality seems unthinkable, but in South Africa, you just never know ….

Hopefully, the answer will be revealed in due course.

As recent as the presidential South Africa Investment Summit (held in April), Ramaphosa proclaimed that the country is open for business and that structural reforms are implemented to accelerate investment and growth. These assertions seem very hollow now.

The country cannot afford to sacrifice its long-standing alliances and economic prosperity for a relationship that does not benefit the country and its citizens in any way.

Ramaphosa should address the nation urgently and be honest about what transpired and why the ANC supports Russia. (An improbable scenario, since he hasn’t even addressed the country on Eskom’s disastrous impact on the economy.)

South Africa now faces difficult choices, such as hosting the Brics summit, including Russia, in August and a trade summit with the United States and African nations a month later.

The next few weeks will be interesting.