South Korea’s Early Trade Data Show Export Slump Persisting

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(Bloomberg) — South Korea’s early trade data showed a decline in exports persisting this month, fueling concerns about the economic outlook ahead of this week’s central bank decision.

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Average daily shipments dropped 14.9% in the first 20 days of February compared with a year earlier, the customs office said Tuesday. That follows an 8.8% decline in the same period of January and points to further weakness in global demand.

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Headline exports fell 2.3% through February 1-20, with chip sales plunging 43.9%. Shipments to China dropped 22.7%, barely improved from January despite a favorable seasonal holiday factor. The headline figure doesn’t account for differences in working days.

Exports began to fall late last year as the world economy deteriorated, making global trade one of the biggest risks for Korea’s outlook. On top of Russia’s war in Ukraine and central bank tightening, sliding semiconductor demand is adding to trouble for Korean manufacturers, many of them important players in supply chains worldwide.

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The data come shortly before the Bank of Korea releases its formal assessment of the economy and the growth outlook later this week. Economists expect the central bank will hold its key rate at 3.5% on Thursday as it aims to avoid further weighing on economic momentum.

Korea posted its first economic contraction in more than two years last quarter as trade deteriorated. BOK Governor Rhee Chang-yong sees declining exports as a key concern along with energy prices and a property slump.

The trade deficit in the first days of February reached $6 billion, compared with $10 billion in the same period last month. Korea posted its worst full-month trade shortfall on record in January.

Policymakers only expect overseas shipments to rebound in the second half of this year.

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