Oil resumes retreat as traders take stock of OPEC+ supply curbs

Oil weakened after rallying more than 2% Tuesday on Saudi Arabian and Russian output cuts, with traders waiting for potentially important commentary from Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman.

Global benchmark Brent dropped back below $76 a barrel following the gain in the previous low-volume session due to a US holiday. The two OPEC+ linchpins announced their latest batch of curbs on Monday, with a supply-cut extension by Riyadh and a fresh pledge to reduce production from Moscow.

The Saudi prince is due to address the 8th OPEC International Seminar later Wednesday in Vienna. When announcing the kingdom’s unilateral cut last month, the minister pledged to do “whatever is necessary” to stabilize the market.

Morgan Stanley reduced its fourth-quarter forecast for Brent to $70 a barrel from $75 in a note published after the latest curbs were made public. “In our base-case scenario, the market loosens in the fourth quarter and turns into surplus in the first half of 2024,” it said.

Crude has slumped this year as China’s recovery lost momentum and central banks in the US and Europe raised rates to quell inflation, jeopardising energy demand. The drop in prices prompted a series of interventions by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to restrict flows, although after each move prices have failed to hold onto initial gains.

“All the focus has been on those OPEC production cuts,” ANZ Group Holdings Ltd. analyst Daniel Hynes told Bloomberg Television. Still, given better-than-expected supplies from other nations, tightness in the physical market has eased, resulting in a lack of signals things could get potentially tight, he said.

Still, key metrics are now strengthening. Brent’s prompt spread — the gap between the two nearest contracts — is back in a bullish, backwardated structure after falling into the opposite pattern for most of the previous two weeks.

Traders will also be on alert this week for the release of official selling prices from Saudi Aramco, including for its flagship Arab Light grade. The Saudi pricing patterns are often matched by neighboring producers and can be pivotal in influencing physical demand from different regions. In a Bloomberg survey before Riyadh’s move to extend its supply cut, no change had been expected.

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