The IMD’s forecast said that the latest meteorological features associated with monsoon onset over Kerala show that there is (a) persistence of westerly winds over south Arabian Sea; (b) increase in the depth of westerly winds up to middle tropospheric levels; and (c) increase of Cloudiness over areas covering south east Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep and Kerala coasts.
The conditions are also favourable for further the monsoon’s advance into some more parts of south Arabian Sea, the entire Lakshadweep area, Maldives and Comorin, more parts Southwest and central Bay of Bengal, some more parts of northeast Bay of Bengal, and some parts of India’s northeastern states.
A delayed onset of southwest monsoon could delay the sowing of critical kharif crops, particularly that of paddy.
The southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days.
India is expected to get normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season despite the evolving El Nino conditions, the IMD had earlier said.
According to the IMD, rainfall between 96 and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 87 cm is considered ‘normal’. Rainfall less than 90 per cent of the long-period average is considered ‘deficient’, between 90 per cent and 95 per cent is ‘below normal’, between 105 percent and 110 per cent is ‘above normal’ and more than 100 per cent is ‘excess’ precipitation.
Rain-fed agriculture accounts for about 40 per cent of the country’s total food production, making it a crucial contributor to India’s food security and economic stability.
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