Mark Rutte Bets on Hard Migration Stance for New Dutch Election

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(Bloomberg) — Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte pulled the plug on his own government by cornering coalition partners over a deal to limit the inflow of migrants, setting the stage for a more conservative campaign ahead of elections expected late this year. 

“All parties have gone to great lengths to find a solution,” Rutte said at a press conference on Friday as he announced the abrupt collapse of his fourth cabinet over a disagreement on the right to family reunions for refugees from war zones. 

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Rutte put himself into a position which could have let to only one outcome: the collapse of his four-party coalition, said people familiar with the talks who declined to be identified discussing non-public matters. 

Rutte Coalition Falls Over Asylum Crisis as Dutch Face Vote 

The coalition partners — Rutte’s VVD, the Christian Democrats, progressive D66 and the smaller Christian Union — have been in talks over the asylum policy for weeks. They were close to a deal at the start of the week until Rutte abruptly introduced non-negotiable demands on Wednesday, the people said. 

The prime minister asked his coalition parties to leave the cabinet if they didn’t agree with a proposal to limit the right to family reunions for refugees from war zones to 200 people per month after a period of two years, two of the people said. That splintered trust among the coalition partners, said two people familiar with the thinking of D66 and the Christian Union. Rutte apologized on Thursday, but that was too little, too late for his coalition partners, the people said. 

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Spokespeople for the prime minister’s office, the Christian Union and D66 declined to comment. A spokesperson for the Christian Democrats didn’t respond to calls seeking comment.

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Rutte’s proposal is set against the almost 48,000 asylum seekers who entered the Netherlands last year; of those, 10,927 arrived via family reunification, according to official data. The government expects the number of arriving asylum seekers to rise to about 70,000 this year.  

The prime minister’s behavior was said to be very unlike Rutte, who’s known for tirelessly seeking compromises and an ability to form alliances in a fragmented political landscape — a trait that also makes him popular in the European Union. 

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The abrupt collapse of the coalition over the migration issue raised the possibility that Rutte was pursuing a deliberate tactic to enhance his prospects for reelection — by pushing his party further to the right at a time populism seems on the rise in Europe. 

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Some polls already suggest Rutte’s party remains the most popular and that he’ll look to secure a fifth term by stitching together a new coalition. Rutte, 56, signaled he may run for a fifth term as premier, saying “if you ask now, the answer is yes.” The vote is likely to be mid-November at the earliest. 

Rutte is the Netherlands’ longest-serving prime minister and the most senior leader in the European Union along with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. But Rutte also oversaw the worst Senate election result of his premiership this year as the Farmer-Citizen Movement, or BBB, became the biggest party in the Dutch upper house after opposing a government push to halve nitrogen emissions by 2030. 

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Read: Farmer Party Poised to Overtake Rutte’s Liberals in Senate

Intensive farming has devastated biodiversity in the Netherlands, the world’s second-largest exporter of food by value, forcing its government to impose drastic measures to comply with European Union rules on reducing nitrogen pollution. 

Farmers have raged against new policies, with thousands taking part in months-long protests against measures likely to put some of them out of business. The stinging electoral defeat due to the nitrogen controversy pushed Rutte’s coalition to the brink of collapse earlier this year. 

The Christian Democrats, who traditionally have appealed to farmers and people in rural areas, have suffered the most from the rise of the Farmer-Citizen Movement, winning record-low support in the senate election. 

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Rutte will likely need to seek new coalition partners, potentially among the right-wing parties who may be more in line with his new stance on migration. 

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Although BBB’s leader Caroline van der Plas said she wouldn’t favor a coalition with VVD under Rutte’s premiership, her party has recently signaled it may support some of the VVD’s asylum policies. Environmental policies in general, and the nitrogen crisis specifically, will be among the most important topics for any deal. 

A June poll of Ipsos suggested VVD would take 28 seats in a parliamentary election against 22 for BBB, while coalition partners CDA and D66 stand to lose several seats. Also in June, an I&O poll projected BBB could overtake the VVD. And another challenge for Rutte may come from the left, amid an anticipated merger between the Green Left and the Labor Party.   

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The coalition’s collapse also comes amid a rise of anti-migration sentiment frequently stoked by Geert Wilders, who came to prominence for his anti-Islamic positions. Other parties have typically rejected the idea of working with Wilders’ Freedom Party, which came third after VVD and D66 in the 2021 vote. Wilders, who’s lived under police protection since 2004 following death threats, has been a vocal opponent migration to the Netherlands.

Rutte’s first cabinet, formed in 2010, fell in 18 months and was then supported by the Freedom Party. Wilders has signaled he’s willing to work with Rutte once again to limit the inflow of migrants to the Netherlands. 

For all his challenges, Rutte is famous for surviving political crises and so far can count on his personal popularity with voters. His tenure as prime minister has spanned coalitions with parties across much of the political spectrum. 

He endured a scandal over childcare subsidies, which tipped thousands into poverty and triggered the collapse of his third cabinet, and has battled with high inflation and an energy crisis over the past year. Rutte has repeatedly demonstrated his skills in escaping accountability from a slew of scandals, earning him the nickname “Teflon Mark.”

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