Mancini’s Italy and the mystery of missed chances

Then, North Macedonia’s goalkeeper Stole Dimitrievski punted a long ball into the Palermo night. It soared, swooped and fell into Italy’s half where North Macedonia’s Bojan Miovski got a touch. The second ball fell to Aleksandar Trajkovski. The former Palermo player who now represents Al-Fayha in Saudi Arabia took it forward and fired.

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Through the game, Gianluigi Donnarumma had so little to do that he could have had a running conversation on life and other things with those behind his goal. Dimitrievski, on the other hand, had so much work that he would have asked for help if such things were allowed.

Usually, in such games, the likes of Dimitrievski are lauded even if they let in a few (think Thibaut Courtois in the Clasico or David de Gea in the last Manchester derby). But though Italy had 32 shots on goal and an xG (expected goals) of 1.98, Trajkovski was the only scorer on the night. From nearly 25 yards out. It was one of the four shots North Macedonia had on target and their only real chance. Football is a lie, said a Corriere dello Sport headline.

“Wow! What an amazing achievement. This gives hope to underdogs in football,” said India head coach Igor Stimac, from Bahrain. Stimac knows a few things about punching above one’s weight, having played every minute of the 1998 World Cup when Croatia finished third.

By way of sucker punches for Italy, Trajkovski’s goal was up there with Ahn Jung-hwan’s strike in the 2002 World Cup or Park Doo-ik’s for North Korea in the 1966 edition. But at least they were in the finals of the competition Italy have won four times and qualified for every edition between 1962 to 2014.

So, how did things come to such a pass for the European champions who are world No 6 in the Fifa rankings, a team that holds the world record for the longest undefeated run of 37 games (they have lost only twice in their last 42)? How did a team equally adept at possession-based play created and perfected over three years by Roberto Mancini and battening hatches fail to beat the 67th ranked country in the world, one that has never been to the World Cup and only once to the Euros? How did a team lose only once in nine games (four draws and four wins in eight games) of the qualifying cycle and exit?

It began in September

To try and answer that, we need to go back a little further. To last September. After 27 shots, including eight on target, and over 70% possession, Italy drew 1-1 to Bulgaria. This was their first game since winning the European championship so it wasn’t panic stations yet. Three days later, Italy drew 0-0 away to Switzerland and Jorginho missed a penalty. That was unusual because till then he hadn’t missed any for Italy in normal time. When Italy beat Lithuania 5-0, the campaign looked back on track but after losing to Spain in the Nations League semi-final and beating Belgium in the third-place playoff, Italy met Switzerland at home. Jorginho missed a penalty again in a 1-1 draw. Guess what? He has scored all six since.

The ability to make possession reflect on the scoreline has been a problem Mancini hadn’t been able to solve. Italy had 64% of the ball against Switzerland in November and 72% in the 0-0 draw against Northern Ireland. Had Italy won one of the games against Switzerland or against Northern Ireland, they would have topped their group, sealed a ticket to Qatar, and not have to play on Thursday as second-place finishers behind Switzerland.

Yes, injuries to key players through the campaign—Federico Chiesa against North Macedonia, Ciro Immobile in November, the brilliant Leonardo Spinazzola without whom Italy are wobbly, since the Euros—did play a part but then, North Macedonia were without Eljif Elmas, their most influential player since Goran Pandev, who was suspended. It wouldn’t be out of context here to mention that Italy’s U-21 coach Paolo Nicolato has spoken of a lack of quality strikers coming through.

Persisting with same players

Then, there is the suggestion that Mancini may have held on to his winning stars a little longer than he should have. In an interview to The Guardian, Jordi Cruyff, Barcelona’s director of international football, spoke about Ferguson being ruthless and humane in the same sentence. Maybe Mancini was more of the latter and less of the former. Maybe Nicolo Barella, Immobile and Lorenzo Insigne, all of whom who do so well for their clubs, have been persisted with for too long; maybe Giacomo Raspadori could have been started.

But none of this would be necessary had Domenico Berardi, who had won those penalties against Switzerland, scored with an open goal after Dimitrievski had a momentary lapse of reason. Immobile was denied by Dimitrievski as was Insigne and Berardi. And then Trajkovski made Italy pay for their profligacy.

“We had North Macedonia in our group while I was the national team head coach (2012-13) and had two really difficult games, beating them 1-0 at home and 2-1 away. All these countries formed from what was formerly Yugoslavia are very talented. Of course, when it comes to this stage where you have 90 minutes, nerves and pressure come into play. Not being able to score makes for very unpleasant last 10-15 minutes where anything can happen,” said Stimac.

This is the second time in succession that Italy, who couldn’t get out of the group stage in 2010 and 2014 finals, won’t be at the World Cup, but it wouldn’t be fair to compare the two. Mancini has shown Italy can play a certain way and their record is nothing short of incredible. “I hope the coach will stay because he is essential for this team,” skipper Giorgio Chiellini has said.

Understandably Mancini isn’t sure of seeing out his contract to 2026 but even if he leaves, Italy, from Donnarumma through to Chiesa, would still have a core of very good players. One that can, in Chiellini’s words, “return to this blessed World Cup.”