‘Harsh’ post-Covid grade markdown set to hit 60,000 A-level students

This year’s school leavers could be among the most disadvantaged by the pandemic, according to education experts, as data reveals twice as many sixth formers as last year could fail to get the high A-level grades they need to take up a place at a prestigious university.

Ministers have been emphatic about their intention to push A-level results in England back down to 2019 levels by this summer, after teacher-assessed grades replaced exams during the Covid pandemic, leading to a significant ramping-up of grades in 2020 and 2021.

But education experts questioned this weekend whether the government is rushing to stamp out grade inflation too fast, given that these students missed out on sitting their GCSEs – seen as important preparation for high-stakes A-level exams – and had their learning heavily disrupted by Covid.

Under the government’s plans, nearly 60,000 sixth formers with predicted A-level grades of AAB or higher – the results typically required to net a place at one of the top third most selective universities – won’t get the grades they are expecting on Thursday, according to analysis by DataHE, a consultancy that advises universities on admissions. This is an increase of 27,000 on last year – the largest ever shift in those expecting high grades and not getting them.

Mark Corver, founder of DataHE, said: “If this happens it will certainly be a big shock for these students, who had the strongest ever GCSE results.”

Corver said sixth formers hadn’t pulled back from applying to the most competitive universities this year, despite all the warnings about grades dropping. He thinks this is because their unusually good GCSE results boosted their confidence, as well as that of their teachers, and watching older siblings getting good A-level grades during the pandemic also made them more hopeful.

Nick Hillman, director of the Higher Education Policy Institute, said: “I really feel for the 2023 generation. On paper they look like a bunch of geniuses, because they got their GCSE results in the year of highest grade inflation. But now with their A-level results they will suddenly be among the most disadvantaged.”

Hillman pointed out they would be competing for jobs with the cohorts just in front of them who had the highest A-level results ever. He warned they may have “a tough time” explaining to future employers, who probably won’t remember the swings in grading, why their results didn’t live up to their great GCSEs.

“If I was 18 this would feel harsh to me,” he said. “There is a very strong case for rooting out the pandemic grade inflation more slowly, given that these young people’s education was very heavily disrupted by Covid.”

Most Russell Group universities are expected to have no courses or very few in clearing next week. Ucas is urging applicants who miss their offer grades to act quickly to secure a place elsewhere.

Mike Nicholson, director of recruitment, admissions and participation at the University of Cambridge, said: “We are talking about a return to 2019 grade distribution, but back then we were also at the lowest point for many years in the number of 18-year-olds. Since then there has been a significant surge in UK applicant numbers.”

He said those who “clustered their choices” around popular courses probably received fewer offers.

“Computer science applications have gone through the roof at all universities, so I think vacancies will be in short supply,” he said. “Economics will be similar, because it is seen as a degree that will get you a good job.” He added that medicine would once again be hugely competitive, with the government adamant it would not fund any extra places this year.

Lee Elliot Major, professor of social mobility at the University of Exeter, warned that this year’s A-level results could be “a huge backwards step” for poorer students. He warned: “They are not only more likely to have suffered greater learning loss during the pandemic, but have been hit by the cost-of-living crisis, with many absent from the classroom altogether.”

Prof Elliot Major fears “it will be middle-class students with sharp-elbowed parents” who will be most prepared to snap into action and fight for the best remaining courses in clearing this week. “All the dials are pointing in the wrong direction when it comes to social mobility,” he said.

A spokesperson for the Department for Education said: “Grading is largely returning to normal to make sure qualifications maintain their value and credibility, but Ofqual has built protection into the grading process to recognise the disruption that students have faced.” She added: “The number of top grades has no bearing on the number of university places available. Students can also be assured that the options available to them are the best they have ever been, with 18-year-olds from disadvantaged backgrounds far more likely to be accepted to university than a decade ago.”