Beware government’s spin on ‘fixed’ Eskom

For much of the past month, news about Eskom has been positive.

Load shedding this winter is far less severe than was forecast (the last time Stage 4 was implemented was 29 days ago), and the constant statements from cabinet/the ANC NEC/the electricity minister/anyone who can call a media conference have been nothing but glowing.

Read:

On Thursday (6 July), we were told that cabinet “welcomed the improvement in Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor [EAF], which is now closer to 70%”. This was breathlessly repeated by the news media.

There is, however, a problem. That number – 70% – is patently false.

According to Eskom’s most recent system status report (to 2 July), its EAF is at 58.31%. The ANC NEC used a slightly more accurate “about 60%” following its meeting this past weekend (Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has spoken about “averaging 60%”).

We’re not at 60% yet.

The highest that Eskom’s EAF has been this year is 59.11% (in the week to 11 June), and it has only been above 58% for four weeks in six months (26 weeks). Of course, this is a massive improvement on the lows of under 50% at the start of the year, but so far, the average EAF for 2023 is 53.85%. At the same point last year, it was 59.3%.

Read: Zapiro poking holes in hypocrisy

Eskom’s coal fleet has always performed better in winter months (high summer temperatures mean the plants run hotter, which means increased partial load losses).

Wind

And wind power continues to play a role – the cold front that lashed the Western Cape at the end of last week meant that wind contributed over 2 000 megawatts (MW) consistently from Thursday afternoon. On Thursday night, this peaked at very close to 3 000MW. As pointed out last month, this has an outsize impact because of the one Koeberg unit being offline.

Losses on high voltage lines from Mpumalanga mean that the 2 000MW of wind generation in the Western and Eastern Cape provinces ‘equates’ to around 2 200MW to 2 400MW of power.

This boost from wind also means Eskom doesn’t have to burn diesel at its open cycle gas turbines (OCGTs).

With lower wind generation earlier in the week, Eskom was running OCGTs a lot! These ran from 7am to 10pm on Tuesday, from 7am to 3am on Wednesday/Thursday and from 7am to 11pm on Thursday. Wind meant it didn’t have to use these after midday on Friday.

Demand

The other factor playing into Eskom’s hands is that demand is lower than forecast.

As recently as May, Eskom was expecting peak daily demand to be somewhere between 33 000MW and 33 500MW in June and July. Now, it’s seeing this at between 32 000MW and 32 500MW.

That’s equivalent to a full stage of load shedding.

Between Fridays and Sundays, this drops to between 3 0000MW and 30 500MW. A year ago, this was between 1 000MW and 2 000MW higher.

One theory is that large industrial customers have cut usage due to steep winter tariffs. But it is unlikely they would suddenly do so this year. This should be baked into the numbers and shouldn’t explain a sudden downward revision (Eskom would have a very clear picture of exactly how much these customers will be using).

Solar

Another, more plausible explanation is that private solar installations (at commercial properties and in households) is starting to make a difference.

Think about a home installation … during the day (presuming the sun is shining), that house’s demand is practically totally removed from the grid. Batteries are charged and these discharge into the night. Homeowners who have invested in sizeable systems proudly show off their electricity bills of a few hundred rand a month.

At commercial properties such as malls  there is an arbitrage opportunity too. Photovoltaic solar powers the centre during the day and battery systems can be used  instead of the grid during the evening peak. Typically, these users are billed on time-of-use tariffs, so there is an economic incentive to not use Eskom/municipal power during the peak. As the rush to rooftop solar continues, expect demand to continue to decline.

The truth, then, is a little more complex (and inconvenient?) than pointing to an improved EAF at Eskom. It’s a long, long road to 70%. Let’s first get to 60%!

Until there is sustained improvement in Eskom’s generating capacity (meaning months’ long progress which will point to a trend), take the messaging from government/Eskom for what it is: spin. There’s an election next year!

Read: Bungling municipality ‘load sheds’ the Durban July