Amid defections playing key role, states head for Assembly polls

Defections are de rigueur in election season as leaders move to other parties when denied a ticket or in search of greener pastures as they feel the opponent is likely to form the government. Parties on the rise also poach leaders to bolster their chances on seats they are weak. However, the ongoing Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur have seen a conspicuous number of defections, forcing political parties to make changes in their poll strategies and even engage in a counter-poaching exercise.

Uttar Pradesh

Uttar Pradesh, which is the most keenly watched election this season and has been termed the semi-final to 2024 general election, has witnessed the most high profile defections. Three ministers in the Yogi Adityanath government- Swami Prasad Maurya, Dara Singh Chouhan and Dharam Singh Saini- joined the Samajwadi Party. Maurya is seen as a weathervane who has switched to BJP from BSP in 2016, a year ahead of the last Assembly elections which the saffron party won by a landslide. SP is likely to field him from Padrauna seat which he has won thrice. BJP was forced to poach former union minister and local royal RPN Singh from the Congress and he may be fielded against Maurya.

Saini, who was MLA from Nakur seat in Saharanpur, is now the SP candidate from there while Dara Singh Chouhan will contest from Ghosi seat. RLD poached Avtar Singh Bhadana from BJP and Gajraj Singh from Congress and fielded them from Jevar and Hapur seats in west UP.

The exit of three leaders is significant as they belong to the non-Yadav backward castes that BJP has been trying to woo to beat the Muslim-Yadav votebank of Samajwadi Party. Facing anti-incumbency and a straight fight with the Akhilesh Yadav-led SP, who is now in a stronger position than in 2017, BJP had adopted the strategy of using both Hindutva polarization and taking the non-Yadav OBCs along to take on SP.

Based on ground reports, BJP had initially planned to drop around 100-125 MLAs in these elections. However, defections have forced it to cut down this number. BJP leaders accept that the strength of backward caste candidates in its list has gone up due to these defections. It is also playing up Hindutva and nationalism now in its campaign to override the caste challenge. With this fast becoming a direct contest, the minority voters- constituting 18% in UP- are largely behind SP.

Congress has lost several of its leaders to BJP and SP. Congress MLA from Rae Bareli, Aditi Singh joined BJP while Imran Masood, who enjoys the support of minorities in Saharanpur and adjoining areas, has moved to SP. Masood has, however, not been given a ticket as SP is trying hard not to fall into the polarization trap.

BJP ally Apna Dal has fielded Haider Ali Khan from the Suar seat in Rampur. He belongs to the local royal family which has an ongoing political feud with SP’s Azam Khan.

SP had poached backward caste leaders Lalji Verma and Ram Achal Rajbhar from BSP a few months back. They now figure in the SP list with Verma from Katehari and Rajbhar from Akbarpur in Ambedkarnagar. Two other BSP defectors- Tribhuvan Dutt (Aalapur) and Rakesh Pandey (Jalalpur) have also been given the ticket by SP.

OP Rajbhar-led SBSP had left the NDA in 2019 and is now a SP ally.

Uttarakhand

Uttarakhand, where BJP had toppled the previous Congress government by poaching nine MLAs, has also seen a high number of leaders switching parties. Denial of ticket is the reason in most of these cases. Harak Singh Rawat, known for changing his seat in every election, left the Pushkar Singh Dhami cabinet and the BJP when the party refused his demand for three seats, including one for his daughter-in-law Anukriti. Despite some initial opposition from Harish Rawat, whose government fell due to the nine defections, Harak Singh is now in the Congress which has fielded Anukriti from Lansdowne.

Former Congress state unit chief Kishor Upadhyay joined BJP on Thursday and is likely to be fielded from Tehri. This led Dhan Singh Negi, the BJP MLA from Tehri, to move to Congress.

Earlier Yashpal Arya, a prominent Dalit leader, and his son Sanjeev moved from BJP to Congress. The influential leader may damage BJP in a number of seats. His son is the Congress candidate from Nainital. Sarita Arya has switched over to BJP from Congress and will contest against Sanjeev.

Goa

Political instability has been a constant feature of Goa politics and these elections are no different. BJP’s most popular leader and late Chief Minister Manohar Parrikar’s son Utpal has raised the banner of revolt and is contesting as an Independent from Panaji seat, represented by his father in the past. BJP has fielded Atanasio Monserrate “Babush”, the sitting MLA, again from this seat.

However, the biggest jolt to BJP has come from the exit of Michael Lobo, the Mapusa MLA who was groomed in politics by Manohar Parrikar. While BJP leaders maintain he left as the party did not agree to give a ticket to his wife Delilah, his departure will affect the saffron party on a few seats.

Congress had lost 15 of its 17 MLAs in the outgoing assembly to the BJP. This time all candidates of the grand old party have taken a pledge in temples and churches that they will not defect once elected.