Dalal Street Week Ahead: Nifty50 in a no-trade zone; consumption pack to relatively perform well

The trading in the entire week was shaky, with Nifty50 either opening with either a gap up or with a gap down on almost all trading days.

But the 50-pack index failed to keep its head above the crucial 200-day moving average (MA) on the daily chart; the index also continued resisting to the 20-week MA.

It oscillated over 488-points over the past five days and ended with a net loss of 69.40 points or 0.40 per cent on a weekly note.

From a technical perspective, Nifty50 is placed at a very crucial juncture. On one hand, it has failed to keep its head above the 200-DMA which stands at 17,225. On the other side, it has continued to take support on a pattern support trend line and the 50-week MA.

The 50-week MA stands at 16,983. The pattern analysis of the chart as well as the derivatives data continue to show the zone of 16,850-17,500 as a strong support. Besides, the index has also seen addition of fresh short positions on Friday as evident from the derivatives data.

In any case, the market in general and Nifty50 in particular remains in a no-trade zone.

So long as the Nifty50 is above 16,850 and below 17,500, it is totally unlikely that it will have any sustainable directional bias on either side. The coming week is likely to see the levels of 17,280 and 17,495 acting as probable resistance points.

The supports come in at 16,950 and 16,800 levels. The trading range is likely to remain a bit wider than usual over the coming week.

The weekly RSI is 49.09; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bearish and below the signal line. The occurrence of the spinning top on the candles continues to point towards indecisive and tentative behavior of the market participants.

While the market stayed largely flat on a week-on-week basis, volatility increased. India VIX rose 5.79 per cent to 19.42 on a weekly basis.

The global as well as Indian markets are also set to react to the FOMC decision slated to come in the middle of the coming week.

The markets appear to have largely discounted the rate hike of 50 basis points.

Regardless of any external factor that may affect the markets and the trend, it would be prudent to stick to the technically derived levels and avoid getting carried away by the gaps on either side.

From a technical standpoint, the Nifty50 has formed a congestion zone; all gaps occurring within this area pattern will have little or no significance unless there is a breakdown below 16,850 or a breakout above 17,500 levels.

ET CONTRIBUTORS

All in all, the markets remain in the mentioned defined zone; from a weekly perspective, it would be crucial for the Nifty50 to defend the levels of 50-DMA; this point is at 16,983 at present and is expected to act as an important support on a closing basis.

Unless any sustainable directional trend is established, it is strongly recommended to avoid shorts. Any downsides must be used to make select purchases. At the same time, all profits must be vigilantly protected at higher levels so long as the Nifty50 is below 17,500.

A selective and cautious approach to the markets is advised. In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95 per cent of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

The analysis of Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) shows that the broader markets are set to relatively outperform again as the Nifty Midcap 100 index has rolled inside the improving quadrant.’

ET CONTRIBUTORS

ET CONTRIBUTORS

The Energy, Commodities, Pharma, Nifty PSE, Metal, and the Infrastructure indices are inside the leading quadrant. These groups are set to continue relatively outperforming the broader markets. The Nifty Media index is inside the weakening quadrant.

But it is seen improving on its relative momentum On the other hand, PSU Bank index is also inside the weakening quadrant but it is seen paring its relative momentum which may negatively affect its relative performance.

Nifty Bank, Services Sector Index, IT, Auto, and the Financial Services index languish inside the weakening quadrant. These groups may relatively underperform the benchmark. On the other hand, Nifty Realty index is also inside the weakening quadrant, but it is seen strongly improving on its relative momentum against the broader Nifty 500 index.

Besides Nifty Midcap 100 Index, the Consumption and FMCG indices are also inside the improving quadrant.

They are likely to perform better against the broader markets while maintaining their relative momentum.

Important Note: RRGTM charts show the relative strength and momentum for a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.